Opinion Two to Tango
The five days after polls closed on May 6 in the UK proved to be not only exciting but also quite revolutionary....
The five days after polls closed on May 6 in the UK proved to be not only exciting but also quite revolutionary. India is now used to coalitions and over the past 21 years various alternatives have been tried and tested in the country. It is obvious that at first the idea of a small party ruling with outside support did not work as VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar came and went quickly. Now,since with its 200+ MPs its position is much stronger,UPA-II is behaving much more casually about the CMP than UPA-I.
So,numbers were always going to be crucial. In the UK,Conservatives with 306 and Lib Dems with 57 was the winning combination. But political mythology had it that they are not natural partners. The Left-leaning newspapersThe Guardian and The Observer particularlyasserted that the Progressive Moment had come to fuse together a coalition of Labour and Lib Dems. Indeed,there has been much talk of this fusion since before 1992. Tony Blair had got into serious negotiations with Paddy Ashdown,who was leader of Lib Dems in the late 1990s. But when the results came in 1997 and Labour got a majority of 179 on its own,all previous agreements were set aside. The Lib Dems were forgotten.
But Labour party never learns humility nor can it see that others see through its veneer. So,once again there was a movement to have a coalition with Lib Dems even as they were talking with Tories. The numbers,however,did not add up since Labours 258 plus Lib Dems 57 still fell 11 short of the majority required at 326. Stringing together ragbag nationalist parties of Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland would barely suffice. The outgoing Labour Cabinet was keen,or at least some of its members said so in public. Alas,many know that even at the best of times,the Labour Party needs a margin of 50 just to keep its regular rebels from wrecking its legislative programme. Here there was no margin available.
But many in the Labour Party,and indeed,outside,could see that its desire for electoral reform and for abandoning the first-past-the-post system was just deathbed conversion to hang on to power. So,when negotiations began secretly and Labour offered a referendum on electoral reform in the second term,Lib Dems could see the trap. They had been taken for a ride once but were not willing to be taken on one again.
So,the anti-Conservative majority of many peoples dreams remained just thata dream. The Conservatives,on the other hand,went out of their way to offer generous terms for the partnership. David Cameron came out of the five days with his status enhanced. He was being caricatured as a toff,an Eton and Oxford dandy,one of the Hurrah Henrys. During the campaign,Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg had said Cameron was arrogant and thought he was born to rule but that he had to earn it. Cameron showed that he had not only thought about coalitions but was open and warm in his invitation to Lib Dems. The Tories did not,indeed could not,presume that the Lib Dems would fall in with them as Labour had done.
Thus,we have a heady experiment on. Cameron gave the Lib Dems five out of the 22 Cabinet posts and many more junior positions. They know their ideological differences and hence there are red linesareas where they agree to differ and not challenge the other side. The UK will not join the Euro for five years at least (assuming the Euro will even last that long!). The Lib Dems desire for legalising illegal immigrants has been shelved. Tories wanted to cut inheritance tax for the rich and Lib Dems stopped it. The Lib Dems want to cut income tax for the lower-paid by raising the threshold but that remains to be financed cautiously.
We shall see how it all works out. The media in the UK are so severe in their 24×7 vigilance that soon rumours will break out about splits and divisions. Cameron and Clegg,who look like twins,will have to manage the ménage carefully. When parliament begins on May 25 and Bills come up for voting,strict discipline will have to be enforced by each party on its members. Yet,it will be a heady ride for British politics.
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