Opinion Two for the road
Jagan and Chandrababu take their different political agendas to the people
Political yatras in Andhra Pradesh are causing a flutter among the dovecotes. Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy,the son of the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy,is on the second leg of his Odarpu Yatra (a yatra to console the kin of those who died of shock in the wake of his fathers death last September). And the former chief minister,Chandrababu Naidu,is leading a Babhli Yatra a yatra to expose and protest the arguably illegal construction of irrigation projects by Maharashtra at Babhli,on river Godavari. With barely a week to go for by-elections to 12 assembly constituencies in the Telangana region,these yatras cannot but have political implications. While Naidus yatra is calculated to influence the electoral outcome,Jagans yatra can unsettle the precarious perch of Chief Minister K. Rosaiah. At any rate,both yatras are a headache for the Congress in the state as well as the Centre.
Jagans yatra is in open defiance of the Congress high command. The young MP tried to tell his partys Central leadership that it was non-political,and that he set out only to honour his personal commitment to visit every household that lost a member after hearing of his fathers tragic demise. His mother also met the Congress president to seek her assent,but Sonia Gandhi remained unconvinced and herself asked him not to go ahead with the yatra,Jagan wrote in a signed article in the newspaper he owns. However,he decided to continue his yatra undeterred,he told his readers. His piece,however tactfully worded,clearly signalled that he was out to challenge the high command.
His yatras intentions are just as unmistakable he wants to be the successor of YSR,and he and his followers havent accepted Rosaiah as chief minister. He used the first leg of his yatra to demonstrate his popularity and his ability as a crowd puller. His remarks against the CM and the government during the yatra are not even thinly veiled. He made no customary noises of loyalty to the ruling family in Delhi. The loyalty of Jagans followers among legislators and even ministers to Rosaiah is suspect. The Congress high command felt that,if not reined in,Jagan posed an immediate challenge to the government. If he walked out of the party with a handful of MLAs,he could plunge the government into crisis. Many ministers and legislators have not heeded the high commands advice and are participating in the yatra. Those who did not show up sent their kin or followers to mark their presence. Crowds throng his roadshows. Between Jagan and the Congress high command,its an eyeball to eyeball confrontation. It is difficult to guess who will blink first.
Meanwhile,Chandrababu Naidus Babhli yatra has different objectives reviving his partys flagging fortunes,and buttressing confidence in his leadership within the party. In 2009,Naidu worked hard to stitch together a political formula of alliances and electoral promises. He brought the major non-Congress outfits together,and made populist electoral promises (monthly cash transfers and colour television sets to the largest number of families). But the formula bombed,and there remain doubts about his ability to deliver a victory in 2014. If the drift continues,there is no guarantee that there wont be a clamour to replace Naidu with one of the matinee idols from the NTR clan.
Naidu faces a difficult situation. The 2009 electoral defeat left him and the party utterly disoriented. That he is in for another five long years out of power is an ineluctable political fact. His partys morale is at its lowest ebb since its inception,it has never faced two successive electoral defeats. Now,for the first time,it is going to be out of office for 10 years straight and that too without a friendly government at the Centre.
So far,Naidu had not found an issue to rally the cadre for an offensive against the government. YSRs death,massive floods,and the Telangana stir in quick succession gave him no respite to collect his forces. Babhli,however,is not a new issue. He has chosen to take it up now to upstage the Telangana Rashtra Samiti and to hit the Congress: in AP for the governments negligence,in Maharashtra for its treachery,and at the Centre for its indifference to the plight of Telangana. The arrest of Naidu and other leaders by the Maharashtra police,the tension surrounding it,and the bandh called by the TDP in the state brought the party back into political focus. Thats a good purchase. If this yatra can yield even modest gains in the Telangana by-elections,Naidu can breathe easy.
The writer is director,Centre for Public Policy Studies,Hyderabad
express@expressindia.com
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