Opinion Three kinds of drought

Question No 2: Why are states falling over backwards to declare their districts drought-affected? Is there a drought problem or do states love a good drought because of possible Central assistance?

Second,there is a hydrological drought when there is a depletion of surface water. Lakes,rivers and reservoirs dry up. The Central Water Commission says the water level in reservoirs is 38 per cent of capacity. Comfort levels are at 45 per cent.

Question No 3: Can we blame dry reservoirs and fall in water tables on deficient rain alone? NASA’s Grace (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) Mission’s study for India between 2002 and 2008 was reported recently in Nature. For

Rajasthan,Haryana and Punjab,this finds weak correlation between rainfall and decline in water tables. As a country,there is no shortage of water,nor is there a shortage of rain. It is simply that this water is not used efficiently and is not harvested. Unconfirmed reports suggest that in the midst of this drought,Gujarat’s water table (if not water in reservoirs) has increased. The International Food Policy Research Institute has lauded Gujarat’s agricultural progress through investments in infrastructure (such as power,roads),irrigation networks and other public goods. This isn’t Sardar Sarovar alone,but also more than 100,000 check-dams and the Khet Talavadi (water ponds in fields) programme. There is plenty to learn from Gujarat.

Question No 4: Where is that elusive Green Revolution? Despite some agricultural productivity increases in south (Andhra is the one to watch) and east India,Green Revolution means Punjab,Haryana and western UP. There are several elements that went into Green Revolution successes: irrigation,high-yielding varieties,fertilisers,pesticides,land consolidation. Why is 60 per cent of India’s cropped area still dry-land? A speech from the Red Fort won’t get us the second Green Revolution or 4 per cent growth in agriculture. The latter is impossible with classic agriculture. It is possible with commercialisation and diversification. We are now told NREGA will be expanded to include irrigation and an amendment will accordingly be introduced in the act. With irrigation so important,why didn’t we think of it when NREGA was first passed? What did UPA-I do about irrigation? What did UPA-I do about catalysing commercialisation and diversification of agriculture?

Question No 5: Do we even have a policy for dry-land agriculture? Do we have a policy for coarse foodgrains? Do we have a policy for edible oils and pulses? The private sector is driven by pecuniary motives. It is only interested in genetically modified fruits and vegetables. But where is the public sector R&D and extension in these crops? Haven’t we reduced agricultural policy to a rice and wheat policy,and that too a procurement price (now equated with minimum support) policy?

Question No 6: Do we know whether we have an agricultural drought? That’s the third type of drought possible and doesn’t immediately follow from a meteorological or hydrological drought. There are fragmentary reports about reduced sowings for paddy,groundnut,sugarcane and coarse cereals. (Cotton and pulses seem to be higher.) Kharif shortfalls can sometimes be compensated by rabi; switching crops also lets you neutralise delayed rains. But the more important question: do we have an early warning system for drought-relief to come into play when there is agricultural drought? Not really. As a universal proposition,we only know when farmers default on crop loans.

Question No 7: Have we done anything to improve efficiency of the PDS,target it better and reduce corruption and leakage? No,we are content to let it be and tout adequate buffer-stocks. These don’t cover pulses,edible oils,coarse foodgrains and even sugar. Nor do they cover animal feed.

Question No 8: Will trade policy and forward markets permit price smoothening? No. The latter is controlled; so is the former. Otherwise how could one have scams on both exports and imports?

Question No 9: Do we have a sensible policy on agricultural credit and insurance? There will invariably be defaults and suicides. No,we don’t. We believe in talking about financial inclusion,not doing about it. We believe in debt relief (and now diesel subsidy for large farmers),not introducing rural reforms so that farmers don’t default. We believe in directed credit at fixed rates,not ensuring farmers obtain credit from the formal system.

Question No 10: Do we know what is causing food price inflation,for commodities like pulses,sugar,edible oils and vegetables,much of which precedes the drought and has nothing to do with it? Beyond blaming speculation and hoarding,and tightening monetary policy,we don’t. This drought isn’t as bad as 2002. Even if one allows for the indirect loop of reduced rural demand adversely affecting manufactured products,GDP growth is unlikely to be shaved off by more than 0.5 per cent or thereabouts. However,there is still a last question and that is rhetorical.

Question No 11: Will the empowered group of ministers finally empower Indian agriculture? The answer is strongly negative. Knee-jerk reactions and speeches from forts don’t solve the problem.

Action does. “After us,the deluge” is inappropriate. But before us,a drought. The government should answer these eleven questions.

The writer is a Delhi-based economist express@expressindia.com