Opinion The rift deepens

What provoked Nepali parties to criticise Secy Gen. Ban for repeating exactly what he had stated three months ago,however,remains a mystery. The Nepali political spectrum is,however,divided on the issue,with the Maoists supporting Moon’s contention. As the single largest party,Maoists hope — have been demanding the right,in fact — to head a new government as the one now headed by Madhav Nepal is a “puppet”,remote-controlled by the South.

In fact,the last four years of democracy have seen a great “play” of diplomats and the international community in Nepal. The ambassadors,not only from India and China,but also European Union,United States and the UN agencies,can meet the prime minister at will,bypassing the foreign ministry altogether. The well-established protocol of the past has totally collapsed. And it is not uncommon to hear advice on what Nepal should be doing,privately or publicly. Ban’s criticism,in that sense,remains a mystery.

As it happens,the fortnight-long agitation that the Maoists had begun on November 1 has not only paralysed the country,but will in all likelihod,derail the peace process. The United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M) that had spearheaded the decade-long insurgency is a signatory to the peace process,and with the kind of agitation that it has launched,speculations have already begun on the fate of the peace process. The Maoists called off at least two major items on the agitation agenda — the sealing of the international airport and declaring ethnic provinces — but that has not bridged the distrust between Maoists (now rebels) and the ruling coalition.

On November 4,Prime Minister Madhav Nepal had a longish meeting with Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai and asked him point blank whether Maoists spent lots of money purchasing arms during the month of Bhadra (mid-July to mid-August). The government has the information that the Maoists raised about two billion rupees and spent a substantial part of it on arms.

Bhattarai has denied it,but the government is not convinced. Prime Minister Nepal had reasons to be especially concerned about the issue as it came in the wake of an interview that Bhattarai gave to the World Peoples Resistance Movement journal,asserting that Maoists have not given up their goal of destroying the old state and capturing the new one,and that a fresh armed strike is not far away. He also asserted that Maoists have not given up the “People’s Liberation Army” and the arms that it had during the insurgency.

And most revealing,he said the alliance with the bourgeois democratic parties was limited,to overthrow the monarchy. And so was the objective of the 12-point agreement that Delhi helped prepare and mediate way back in November 2005 to bring Nepal’s Maoists and pro-democracy parties under one platform against the “absolute monarchy”.

The movement that ensued in April 2006 moved decisively towards that goal,and the monarchy was ousted through a resolution of the constituent assembly in June 2008.

With the Maoists now claiming that the election of a constituent assembly as well as the republic was their agenda,and that the other political parties were remnants of the old regime led by the “feudal monarchy”,the next round between the Maoists and other political parties appears right round the corner.

The Maoist moves are aimed towards creating chaos and confusion,and a slow destruction of the old regime. While the Maoists do not have sufficient numbers or backing from other parties in the constituent assembly to form their own government,their tactic —to ensure that no government should be functional or stable — has worked,for now.

Madhav Nepal’s government has been unable to get the budget passed in parliament,as the Maoists have been obstructing it for three months now. Ministers and bureaucrats are unlikely to get salaries from government coffers if the budget is not passed within the next two weeks. And to avoid all that,the Maoists simply want President Rambaran Yadav to say that his reinstating army chief Katawal on May 4 hours after he was sacked by Prachanda when he was prime minister,was wrong. And at least on that point,18 parties which had asked the president to reinstate the chief,are with the president. But that only increases the chances of confrontation.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com