SINCE 9/11,Americas priority in Central Asia has been to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan. But as the US and NATO pull out,there is a new danger: that the West could become entangled in regional rivalries,local strongman politics and competition with Russia and China.
Central Asian governments have sought for years to manipulate foreign powers interest in the region for their own benefit. In the summer of 2005,the US military was evicted from its facility at Karshi-Khanabad in Uzbekistan after American officials criticised the Uzbek governments slaughter of hundreds of anti-government demonstrators in Andijon; Russia and China,which have both been expanding their footprints in the region,publicly backed the crackdown. In 2009 Kyrgyzstans kleptocratic president,Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev,drummed up a bidding war between Washington and Moscow over the fate of the Manas air base,the main staging facility for American troops in Afghanistan.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan also elevates the risk that the US,together with other external powers,will be drawn into a number of local disputes and escalating regional rivalries. Over the last decade,Central Asian leaders have consistently invoked the spectre of insurgents spilling over from Afghanistan to justify their own counterterrorism efforts and the need for security cooperation with Russia,China and the US. Russia seems keen to reinforce this narrative to justify extending its military basing rights throughout the country,which,in all likelihood,Tajik officials will then use as leverage to demand more Western assistance.
After 11 years of pressing the Afghan government to improve its governance and create democratic institutions,Washington has failed to effectively promote these same goals in neighbouring countries. Now withdrawal from Afghanistan risks dragging the West even further into a hotbed of domestic power struggles and regional rivalries.
Alexander Cooley is the author of Great Games,Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia
