Opinion The Istanbul gambit
How Erdogan marginalised the military?
Gusts of change have been blowing at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul for a while. The soldiers in their regal uniform continue to parade along the central lawn,and the clock in Ataturks room remains frozen at 9.05 am,as it has been since his death in 1938. For a long while,under orders from the military,all the clocks at the palace displayed 9.05 am marking the hour of his death. Time was frozen,but recently the clocks seem to have been wound. A new era is being born in Turkish history under the orders of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Yet,the resignations by the military top brass on Friday took most observers by surprise. The once-omnipotent army,the shadowy power of Turkish politics,buckled under Erdogans civilian government,as the head of the armed forces,General Isik Kosaner,accompanied by the heads of the ground,air and naval forces,resigned in protest over government pressure to sack officers they had wanted to promote to the Supreme Military Council.
Media reports detail that backdoor talks between General Kosaner and Erdogan had become routine over the past month ahead of the Supreme Military Council meeting. In session now,deliberating on promotions in the military,the SMC,for the first time in modern Turkish history,is chaired by the prime minister and the president in effect,allowing a civilian government to have its say on military matters.
Undeniably,this is a decisive moment,but the struggle to have the upper hand has been many years in the making and its genesis can be traced to the Sledgehammer and the Ergenekon cases in which the military has been accused of creating conditions to topple governments. The military with its frequent intrusions in politics has deposed four governments since 1960. Its rationale has been simple: Ataturk left behind a system in which the custodian of the secular system is the army. After Erdogans victory and the presence of a moderate Islamist party at the helm,it is alleged that plans were again drawn to overthrow the government,to enact another coup.
The Ergenekon,a clandestine Kemalist organisation,is said to have set the wheels in motion. It is alleged that they laid the groundwork for a coup in 2003,shortly after Erdogans election in 2002. Documents seized by the government in this protracted case claims plans for a military takeover that would bring about an ultra-secularist,ultra-nationalist,authoritarian regime. Now members of the group stand accused of sedition and treason. The prosecution says that evidence points to planned attacks on members of the higher judiciary,journalists and author Orhan Pamuk. Since the investigation began,300 people have been detained and they await trial.
The Sledgehammer case seems to strengthen the Ergenekon case. It is alleged that Erdogan was targeted as part of a conspiracy to unseat him. Further,the prosecutors say a military clique hatched plans to bomb mosques and crash jets in order to delegitimise the power of the government led by Erdogans Justice and Development Party.
In response,195 active and retired army officers have been arrested. Another 22 senior military officers were arrested hours before the resignation of General Kosaner. The problem became worse with the allegation that two former chiefs of staff,Generals Yasar Buyukanit and Ilker Basbug,were involved in the 2005 bombings at mosques and running subversive websites respectively.
These two cases,dubbed conspiracies against the army by many in Turkey,read like scenes from a movie but they have nonetheless allowed for the centralisation of power with the Justice and Development Party. Further,with his partys astounding victory in the June 12 elections,the countrys economic performance and potential entry into the EU,Erdogan now sits as the most powerful leader at the helm since Ataturk.
The question is,what will the prime minister do with this newfound power? Analysts as well as international powers have called for more freedoms to the people. The main hurdle is an outdated constitution that was drafted under military rule after the 1980 coup. In fact,Erdogans campaign pledge was that he would rewrite the constitution. It was just last year that he secured a victory in the referendum to reform the constitutional courts paving the way for a more democratic state. Greater freedoms were granted to the Kurdish minorities.
But the road ahead is not easy. Turkish politicians have never written a constitution; the first one was drafted by academics and the second was designed by the military. Questions remain on whether Erdogans Islamist party will take into account the religious rights of Christians,Bahais and Alevis.
Erdogan would like to prove those doubts wrong. With the military sidelined,change may well materialise.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
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