Opinion The great Game Folio

Obama acknowledged the Russian gesture as a ‘substantial contribution’ to his efforts at building a new international coalition to stabilise the Af-Pak region. Until now,Russia had only allowed the United States to ship non-lethal military supplies across its territory by train.

From Delhi’s perspective,one pattern stands out. When Washington and Moscow fight it out in Afghanistan — as they did during the second part of the Cold War — the consequences are negative for India. When America and Russia are on the same page — as in their support to Afghan neutrality in the early years of the Cold War and in the immediate aftermath of 9/11— the situation is more conducive for the pursuit of Indian interests.

The US-Russian divergence in the last years of the Bush Administration made it difficult not only for India but also the Hamid Karzai government in Kabul. The resumption of US-Russian cooperation comes at a time when Afghanistan must conduct presidential elections amidst deteriorating security conditions. It also comes soon after Washington has raised its troop levels in Afghanistan and launched a major military offensive against the al Qaeda and the Taliban.

The opening of the Russian route is very welcome to Washington which has been scrambling to diversify — there is no real way of replacing America’s near complete logistical dependence on Pakistan to reinforce its military presence in Afghanistan.

India in Kashgar

Throughout history,the Chinese and Indian empires spent much of their energies beating back invaders from inner Asia. The Great Game in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries saw the intersection of the frontier policies of China and India.

Although British India coveted greater influence in Tibet and Xinjiang (it was known as Eastern Turkestan then),much to the annoyance of a weak China,London and Calcutta were happy to cut Beijing some political slack in order to prevent Russian domination of the Eurasian heartland.

The triangular power play was at the heart of India’s diplomatic mission in Kashgar,the historic Silk Road city that linked the far-flung border regions of Chinese,Russian and Indian empires.

The British consulate in Kashgar was founded in 1890,but recognised by the Chinese only in 1908. Funded and manned entirely by the Foreign and Political Department (a precursor of the current Indian Foreign Service),British India’s consulate in Kashgar lasted until revolutionary developments engulfed China in the middle of the last century.

Given the complex history of the Central Asian region and the unstable power dynamics of the Great Game,India should never stop looking for potential strategic cooperation with other major powers,including China.

India should avoid reacting negatively to every advance in China’s regional position. The judgment on how Beijing’s rise affects Delhi must be based on specifics of a situation,rather than a generalised ‘China threat’ theory.

That Beijing and Delhi have shared interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia is not in doubt. What they need is a new framework for regional security cooperation that looks beyond their mutual obsession with Pakistan.

China’s Af-Pak moment

As India notes with satisfaction the regional implications of US-Russian rapprochement,it should also pay attention to China’s growing role in the Great Game.

Even before this weekend’s ethnic riots in the Xinjiang province — that remind us of the geopolitical link between China’s far western region,Central Asia and the Subcontinent — the Obama Administration had decided to raise the level of political consultation with Beijing on its Af-Pak strategy.

The US Special Envoy on Pakistan and Afghanistan,Richard Holbrooke,traveled to Beijing a couple of months ago to brief the Chinese leadership on Obama’s game plan for the Subcontinent.

Obama is keen to mobilise a range of Chinese commercial and political strengths in the region to the task of bringing stability to the borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The problem for Delhi does not stem from a larger Chinese role in Afghanistan,but on whether Beijing will let its special relationship with Islamabad come in the way of greater Sino-Indian cooperation in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore