Opinion The die is cast

By instinct,the Manmohan Singh government is extremely cautious on security decisions and has always looked to avoid or delay any subject that could potentially provoke an undesirable reaction. The fact that Pakistan-sponsored terror elements constantly targeted Indian assets was not easy to deal with. The government,at the highest levels,thought it prudent to tone down the Indian presence and take up projects which would not require heavy manpower deployment in Afghanistan.

Going by the intent shown in the PM’s visit,this approach is changing. Not only is India keen to deepen its assistance but it is also prepared to expand the basket. However,the extra caution is still very much present in this otherwise bold move. The declaration on strategic partnership specifically clarifies that it is not directed against any state or group of states,which in itself reflects the complexities involved in taking this partnership forward.

Not just that,the PM and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai have desisted from putting down concerns over cross-border terrorism. Afghanistan has this mentioned in almost every other joint document but not with India. Even India has this condemnation against terrorist safe havens mentioned in most other documents with important powers,including the Indo-US joint statement issued during President Barack Obama’s visit last year.

This is not to say the two countries don’t share similar views — in fact,they share absolutely the same views but both want this to be least provocative. This reflects the growing maturity and confidence in the relationship — the mutual understanding that any such statement of solidarity could have a negative bearing on the security of both countries.

In many ways,what went unsaid and unstated in the visit is what fundamentally aligns India and Afghanistan today. The implication of each word they say,or every move they make together,is a calculation neither can make definitively. Yet,the dice had to be cast this time. This was part of a larger reassessment of India’s role in Afghanistan after the decision of the US and other NATO powers to gradually reduce military presence in the region.

Karzai also realises that Afghanistan needs reliable options within the region as it tries to shape its own future. Then there is a clear commitment to democracy which provides an ideal political backdrop to the partnership and,finally,the fact that India has been able to build relationships beyond old Northern Alliance partners,particularly among the Pashtuns,bolsters the prospects.

But as it takes shape,this partnership is bound to encounter some rough weather. The announcement in itself would have repercussions beyond the boundaries of India and Afghanistan. It is not just Islamabad but Beijing too that is watching these developments closely.

The key for India would be to prove itself as a reliable strategic partner. For most of the past decade,Delhi has tried to pretend that the Af-Pak conflict was not its war because it suited all actors,including the US. But if the move to dilute Western military presence prompted a rethink,the Abbottabad operation validates the change of policy.

The bottomline is that India has to invest in Afghanistan’s security for its own sake — be it training the police or even helping the Afghan armed forces in future. It may test India’s political leadership,but it is clearly the course to follow in relatively uncertain times.

pranab.samanta@expressindia.com