Opinion The breeze from Chennai
The political equation is more open than usual in Tamil Nadu.
If Andhra Pradesh is seen as a bellwether state,useful to assess the drift of politics in the country,its neighbour,Tamil Nadu,has been anything but that. Trailblazer and an outlier on political and social counts,setting its own parameters,it was crying out for separation from the Indian Union till just about 40 years ago. But now,for the past 15 years at least,it has dramatically set the tone for the nation,rather than merely reflect what is going on in Bharatvarsha.
Think back on the reason why the Sitaram Kesri-led Congress first withdrew support to the United Front in 1997 the DMK. In 1999,it was the AIADMKs turn to withdraw support from the NDA,which resulted in a general election. Thereafter,the party of all seasons,the DMK,took a strategic turn to the NDA,giving the BJP-led coalition stability. Then,in 2004,the DMK facilitated the UPAs victory. And thats where it remains seven years later.
With the 2G spectrum scam drawing A. Raja to jail and raids on a television channel owned by Chief Minister M. Karunanidhis family,the DMKs affairs are once again casting a long shadow on national politics. The storm in Parliament over a joint parliamentary committee may be about to subside,with the Centre cornered by the opposition,but the looming election in Tamil Nadu (principally between alliances led by the DMK and the AIADMK) is going to provide another very interesting dimension to the Spectrum Raja debate. The partys performance in the assembly election is likely to determine the political salience of the 2G issue at the national level.
Tamil Nadu has always produced spectacular politics,or what they may refer to in Chennai as super spectacular politics the word super,given the passion that Tamilians bring to their politics,cinema and life in general,having almost passed into the Tamil lexicon,is abundantly and very appropriately used.
If the DMK-led coalition loses,it would break many political myths that prevail about the importance of the national partner in swinging results. The Congress,the one stabilising though marginalised national force in Tamil Nadu,has aligned alternatively with each of the Dravidian parties which has then almost always been the game-changer.
This time,of course,there are several things that make this election for the assemblys 234 seats of great national significance. The first is the way the contest is structured. The nature of the coalitions in the pit has undergone a dramatic change from the last time round. The DMK is attempting to buck incumbency,at the Centre and in the state,despite not having a single-party majority in the state. For all the moans we hear from the Congress at the Centre of being in a coalition clutch it cant do much about,it is actually the Congress that can push the DMK about in the state,but has not done so. Aware of the precarious positioning of the alliance this time,the DMK has wooed the elusive and fickle PMK,not wanting to leave any end uncovered. The AIADMK has seen a steady erosion in its otherwise robust vote shares and support amongst women and in rural areas. Another stint in opposition could seriously dent the AIADMKs positioning in the state. The smaller parties may well drift off if the AIADMK fails to make the cut.
In the maze of star and screenplay writers scripting the political drama,the most interesting factor this time is the other cinestar in the fray. Captain Vijayakanth,of the DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam),is a recent entrant,his party having been inaugurated only in September 2005,but it has slowly emerged as a factor. In assembly bypolls last year,which the AIADMK boycotted complaining about EVMs,the Captain held on and soaked up nearly 23 per cent of the votes,emerging as the main opposition. Even in the 2009 parliamentary elections and in the state polls before that,he cut into the anti-incumbency votes,clearly bothering Jayalalitha no end.
This time round too,Vijayakanth,nicknamed Captain after his film Captain Prabhakaran,is in talks with the Congress. Whether he chooses to merge his party with the
Congress,like Chiranjeevis Praja Rajyam Party in Andhra,or continues to work as a third pole in Tamil politics,not allowing either of the Dravida parties to rule the roost and therefore help the Congress emerge as the net gainer,remains to be seen.
However,the key aspect of this election will be how the campaign on the corruption issue will play out electorally. The DMK has espoused the most radical of social and political ideas till just a few years ago. Yet a party of organised cadres rooted in rational ideas is now increasingly giving the impression of being One Family Inc,controlling almost all conceivable sectors of the Tamil Nadu economy.
But it has also been the party of governance,raising the already high bar in the state over the past five years by creating successful and sustainable social schemes,targeting women,the poor,minorities. The colour TV distribution (despite the beneficiaries including a retired IAS officers wife) and employment fairs arranged by the party after the economic slowdown dovetailed into popular aspirations. The state government has even put in place a system of monitoring trucks of foodgrain by GPS,aimed at cutting back problems with the public distribution system in the state,and Tamil Nadus delivery of cash transfers under the Janani Suraksha Yojana has been better than most other states.
How the AIADMK mines the slowdown in the DMKs rise-and-rise graph remains to be seen. The AIADMK is helped in its battle against the incumbent DMK by the national campaign against the perceived corruption of the evergreen DMK ministers at the Centre and the imprimatur of the Left to whitewash the charges of corruption that once buried the AIADMK chief herself under the woodwork.
But second-guessing the Tamil Nadu voter has always been hazardous. The only certainty is the promise of a super-duper blockbuster of a poll.
seema.chishti@expressindia.com
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