TEHRAN FINDS TALIBAN?
Angry at the successful conclusion of the strategic partnership agreement (SPA) between Kabul and Washington,Tehran has apparently renewed its contacts with the Taliban that is seeking to overthrow the government in Afghanistan led by President Hamid Karzai.
After US President Barack Obamas visit to Kabul earlier this month and the signing of the SPA,the Afghan landscape looks a lot different. For one,Obama has signalled the political will to undertake a long-term strategic commitment to the future of Afghanistan.
This would involve mobilising international monetary and military support for Afghanistans economic development and national security. On the military side,this involves standing up and funding a strong Afghan National Army.
Iran,like Pakistan,is not enthused by the prospect of a large Afghan national armed force backed by US military might and Western economic largesse. Historically,Kabul never had much of a standing army because Afghanistan never had the resources to pay for one.
Worse still from Tehrans perspective is the prospect
that the US would retain a strong military force in Afghanistan after 2014,when Washington plans to end its combat role there.
The size of this residual US force is yet to be determined. There is speculation that it could range from 20,000 to 40,000 troops. It would involve probably the worlds biggest concentration of US Special Forces in any one theatre. That is a sizeable presence that will aid and assist the Afghan forces to defend Kabuls sovereignty. The US forces will also join the Afghan troops in actual combat if needed. The US-Afghan SPA is valid for 10 years after 2014. This means there could be a muscular American military presence in Afghanistan up to 2024.
Besides helping Kabul to secure its sovereignty,US forces will also be engaged in counter-terror missions against al-Qaeda and its radical allies that enjoy shelter and patronage in Pakistans western borderlands.
PRESSING KABUL
The US-Afghan SPA is not welcome in Iran and Tehran is making its displeasure known. A few days ago,Iranian
foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast attacked the pact between Washington and Tehran.
Not only will the strategic pact not resolve Afghanistans security problems,but it will intensify insecurity and instability in Afghanistan, Mehmanparast said.
He added that the pact is a source of concern for Iran as the status of US military bases in Afghanistan is unclear and the security duties of US forces lack transparency.
For its part,the government of Hamid Karzai did its best to reassure Iran in negotiating the SPA with Washington. The pact declares that the US will not use Afghan soil to attack Kabuls neighbours.
The SPA will be followed by a status of forces agreement that will give Kabul sovereign control over the disposition of American troops in Afghanistan. Both Kabul and Washington have declared that the US is not seeking permanent military bases in Afghanistan.
This was not enough to satisfy Iran. Irans ambassador to Kabul called on the Afghan parliament to reject the SPA with the US. Irans aggressive campaign has angered lawmakers in Kabul,who have denounced Tehrans interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.
LITTLE SATAN
As it comes to terms with the deepening bond between Kabul and Washington,Tehran is,not surprisingly,looking at options to increase its leverage in Afghanistan.
Until now,Iran has presented itself as a friend of Kabul. Now Tehran has begun to befriend Kabuls enemies. But surely the interests of Tehran and the Taliban are incompatible in Afghanistan?
That might well be; but for now Tehrans priority is to deal with the Big Satan,the US. If that involves making deals with the Taliban,the Little Satan,then so be it.
Meanwhile,the mounting tensions between Tehran and Kabul begin to raise an important question for New Delhi. For long,Delhi has assumed that Tehran is a natural ally in strengthening Kabul against the Taliban and its friends. Iran also gives India physical access to Afghanistan that Pakistan refuses to.
This presumed convergence might come under stress,as India deepens its political commitment to Afghanistan and Tehran looks to Kabuls enemies.
The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation,Delhi
