Opinion Tahrir and Tiananmen

Unlike the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world and elsewhere,the Chinese Communist Party has delivered miraculous economic growth for three decades that has resulted in the biggest improvement in the lives of the largest number of people in the shortest period of time in history. The economic advancement of China,its emergence as a powerful state and the consequent proud nationalism lend a legitimacy to the CCP rule that can’t be compared to the vulnerabilities of the rulers in the Middle East.

Most authoritarian regimes also tend to become personal dictatorships that smother not just dissent but all forms of political life. These dictators,like Hosni Mubarak,become the lightning rod for the eventual revolt of a frustrated population.

The contrast with the situation in China could not be starker. The CCP is a mass party with millions of members — more than 75 million at the end of 2009. It provides the vehicle for individual career enhancement and a constant replacement of government officials and party leaders thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s institution of a two-term rule. Above all,the CCP provides space for political contestation and mutual accommodation among various factions and viewpoints within a specific bandwidth.

Nevertheless,the CCP is conscious of the many sources of instability in China that constitute the flip side of rapid economic growth during the last three decades. The CCP counts every single disturbance across the nation,analyses the sources and seeks to address them through policy action.

Ever since the tumultuous period of 1989-91 — which saw prolonged demonstrations in favour of democracy in the Tiananmen Square,the fall of the Berlin Wall,the collapse of the East European socialist states,and the disappearance of the Soviet Union — the CCP has taken a sustained interest in the general process of “regime change”,either through internal popular revolt or through external sponsorship. Controlling media coverage is only one element of the CCP’s strategy of forestalling regime change.

Regime stability

At the international level,Beijing continues to put special emphasis on the principle of non-intervention. It has opposed Washington’s support to various “colour revolutions” on the Asian periphery and beyond. While it has actively blocked the internal coverage of popular protests in other countries,the CCP has also stepped up the ideological offensive against the export of the Western democratic model.

In the only formal statement made by China on the Cairo protests,the emphasis was on “stability”. When China Daily commented editorially on Mubarak’s fall last week,it used the word “stability” at least seven times.

This week,the Global Times underlined Beijing’s scepticism about the success of democracy in Egypt. “Egypt’s middle class is weak,bureaucracy and corruption are prevalent and the income gap between rich and poor is huge”,the Times said. “These problems cannot be solved by democracy itself. They require a hard process of economic and cultural development throughout Egyptian society… Revolution broke out and changed the country,but there is no force to sustain that change,” the Times added.

Beyond the propaganda on stability,Beijing is expected to take a wide range of political and economic measures to deal with the potential turbulence at home. The CCP has already launched a “close-to-the-masses” campaign.

Both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao reached out to people during the lunar New Year celebrations and promised the government would pay more attention to issues affecting ordinary Chinese citizens at a time of rising inflation,shortage of cheap housing,and growing corruption.

Making new friends

While China is suspicious of America’s support to popular revolutions,it is also conscious that the changes unfolding in the Middle East could weaken the US position in the region. Chinese analysts have pointed to the fact that most regime changes in the region have produced leaders who are opposed to the West and Israel.

As the fastest-growing economic partner of Middle Eastern nations,China is confident that it is well placed to contribute to the development of Egypt after the revolution. China has surpassed US oil purchases in the Middle East — importing 1.94 million barrels per day or 14 per cent more than the US.

China’s two-way trade with the region has tripled in the last five years,reaching nearly $115 billion in 2009. Beijing already enjoys strong political and economic ties with the major powers in the Middle East — Iran,Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Don’t be surprised if China emerges a stronger player in the Middle East after the current turmoil.