Opinion Several bends in Nepal

Openness has almost become an alien feature of Nepali politics. That most crucial decisions are taken away from public glare is not an exception but the rule. The decision to extend the tenure of the constituent assembly by a year,when it failed to deliver the constitution on May 28,2010,was taken just 28 minutes prior to the deadline’s expiry. The decision to abolish the monarchy was taken when a bill was introduced at midnight by a government that had neither taken oath of office nor even secured a majority. But on both occasions,the three major parties that have led the government in rotation since 2006 — the Nepali Congress,the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) — claimed they actually saved the nation and democracy. But at most,these three parties,plus the United Madhesh Democratic Front that’s emerged as the fourth largest,have come together just to save their honour and privileges as parliamentarians. Yet,they are a scared lot today. They have been complaining that they feel insecure going to the electorate — increasingly angry and restive — over the failure to give the country a constitution and a legitimate government. Their latest decision,in the same manner,to let the caretaker government pass the budget this week isn’t a larger national game,except that a Maoist faction has won the intra-party struggle,at least for now. Why did the UCPN-M,which had questioned the caretaker government’s right to present the budget,mysteriously relent? The country would be paralysed,its development halted,and government employees unable to draw their salary without a budget by November 16. A day earlier,parliament’s authorisation to spend from the consolidated fund ended. The House and its members would logically be the target of mass fury.Nepal’s interim constitution envisages a ridiculously idealistic equation among parliamentary parties,that they’ll allow the House to run smoothly for ever,and Speaker Subhash Nembang has taken this ideal by the letter. In the past,any obstruction has led to adjournment of the House without transacting any business. The UCPN-M has other reasons to relent too. Its 19,000-strong cadre,lodged in 28 cantonments and drawing salary from government coffers,will starve. They would never forgive the Maoist leadership if the budget were blocked. Second,these combatants and 238 party parliamentarians would no longer be paying Rs 3,000 and Rs 10,000 per head monthly as levy to the party. However,it has political implications for the UCPN-M which appears on the verge of a vertical split — at least at its politburo and standing committee levels — as it readies for its “extended meeting” beginning November 21,in which around 7,000 delegates will

participate.

Maoist chief Prachanda,his most ardent comrade till last year,Baburam Bhattarai,and the party’s most respected ideologue,Mohan Baidya (Kiran),have presented separate reports with clarifications. Prachanda faces open charges of promoting corruption. Baidya warns that cleansing the current system is not possible,the party must go for a fresh mass revolt or “revolution” to capture power,and that India must be fought as an expansionist force — a statement that Prachanda concurs with. But Prachanda still appears to command majority and wants to teach a lesson to the

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challengers.Bhattarai,who influenced the UCPN-M parliamentary party to support the budget initiative,has reasons to keep parliament alive and be on good terms with the parties who were part of the April 2006 movement for democracy. In the event of a kick from Prachanda,Bhattarai will need a fall-back. But the uncertainties only get deeper. A possibility of a patch-up between Prachanda and Bhattarai — in favour of a mass revolt,exposing India as an “enemy” — may be a blow to Nepal’s peace process; and the self-acclaimed democratic forces,the key actors in this failure,might have to beg the president and the army to “save democracy and the nation”.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com