Opinion Re-routing the region

Once long-distance seafaring developed five centuries ago,the Silk Road fell into disuse. The creation of modern territorial states steadily closed down inner Asian frontiers that were once the most open and productive in the world. As a result,Afghanistan,Central Asia and western China are now landlocked.

From Washington to Beijing,Delhi to Dushanbe,and Tehran to Kashgar,there is much excitement about the enormous potential of the New Silk Road — road and rail corridors,oil and natural gas pipelines and power transmission lines land-linking the territories that became remote only in recent history.

For Kabul and its supporters,turning Afghanistan into “Asia’s roundabout” is at the heart of the strategy to make it economically self-sustaining after 2014,when the US and its allies withdraw most of their troops from the country.

At least some in Pakistan,which has always been acutely conscious of its geostrategic location at the crossroads of Asia,have begun to recognise the benefits of becoming an economic bridge between India,China,Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

For Delhi,overcoming the political barriers in Pakistan for trans-border trade and gaining overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asia have been major themes of its meandering peace process with Islamabad.

Two very different events this week are likely to showcase the opportunities and challenges in building a New Silk Road.

One is the conference in Istanbul that brings together Kabul’s neighbours and major powers to promote peace and reconciliation within Afghanistan as well as regional security and prosperity. External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna is representing Delhi at the Istanbul conference. The other is the visit to India by Nur Bekri,the governor of China’s Xinjiang province. If the former is about exploring multilateral solutions to a prolonged regional crisis,the latter is about expanding the template of Sino-Indian relations to cover an important province that borders India and is being developed into a thriving hub for Central and South Asia.

Together,the two events highlight the new possibilities for trans-border economic cooperation but also underline the persistent problem of cross-border terrorism.

The Istanbul conference will focus on ending Afghanistan’s violent insurgency that enjoys sanctuaries in the borderlands of Pakistan. Bekri’s visit to India comes at a time when Xinjiang is facing trouble from extremist groups trained and equipped in terror camps in Pakistan.

Beijing is extremely careful not to point fingers at its all-weather friends in Islamabad or join India in its arguments with Pakistan on the sources of cross-border terrorism in the region. But Delhi and Beijing can certainly begin to compare notes on how the evolving Af-Pak dynamic might impact on their internal security.

While India-China counter-terror cooperation might take time to evolve,Delhi and Beijing have similar interests in promoting regional integration between South Asia,Central Asia and western China. So does the United States.

Building a New Silk Road has become a major component of the Obama administration’s strategy to secure Afghanistan’s future beyond 2014. It has been mobilising support from major international financial institutions like the Asian Development Bank and private investors to back the plans for reconnecting Afghanistan to both South and Central Asia.

A comprehensive regional security framework is likely to remain elusive at Istanbul because of Pakistan’s opposition. Islamabad sees itself in a privileged position in Afghanistan and has no interest in regional mechanisms that constrain its freedom of action.

Nevertheless it is certainly possible that the idea of the New Silk Road will gain some traction in Istanbul. In her testimony to the US Congress last week,Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Obama administration is “pursuing a broader,long-term vision for regional economic integration that we call the New Silk Road. It’s not just an economic plan. It talks about how we can get these countries that have so many problems with each other to begin cooperating”.

She added: “I’m very pleased by the progress that both India and Pakistan are making on the commercial front and the progress in implementing the transit trade agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

Meanwhile,China has already taken the lead in building ambitious trade corridors between western China on the one hand and Pakistan and the Middle East on the other. Beijing also has ambitious plans to develop a “Eurasian land bridge” linking its Pacific coastline with the Atlantic.

Bekri is visiting Delhi with a large delegation of businessmen and is open to the idea of greater trade and economic cooperation between Xinjiang and India. As Sino-Indian relations stabilise and expand,it is possible to conceive land links between western China and India over the longer term.

While India has reasons to object to China’s development of infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir,Delhi has every incentive to explore the possibilities for joint ventures with Beijing in the future development of Afghanistan. Both India and China have an interest in developing the natural resources of Afghanistan and connect the country to global markets.

The idea of a New Silk Road,then,opens up a rare opportunity for Delhi to work with both Washington and Beijing in promoting grand trans-border infrastructure projects in the north-western subcontinent and Central Asia.

While many fundamental differences remain among Islamabad,Delhi and Beijing,and the future of Afghanistan remains very uncertain,the collective regional pursuit of a New Silk Road might provide a very different context to address them.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi,express@expressindia.com