Opinion German elections: AfD is a worry but Berlin should focus on growth and US ties
People's discontent over economy and immigration challenges seeks new political calibration
Leader of far right AfD Alice Weidel waves a German flag at the AfD party headquarters in Berlin, Germany, after the German national election. (Source: AP Photo) 
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The German elections resulted in a victory for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in alliance with the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU). As anticipated, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured second place, reflecting a shift to the right in German politics. Meanwhile, the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) has suffered a significant setback, losing over 9 per cent of its vote share and falling to third place. Their coalition partner, the Greens, have declined further, while the Free Democrats (FDP) have failed to cross the threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
Despite their victory, the CDU’s performance is underwhelming, failing to surpass the 30 per cent mark. The AfD, on the other hand, has doubled its strength. It is a notable achievement and underscores a strong reaction against the SPD-Green-FDP coalition government, which has struggled with economic and immigration challenges.
Under Friedrich Merz, the CDU has shifted further to the right, moving away from Angela Merkel’s centrist open immigration stance and economic strategies to a more conservative approach. Now, the CDU faces the challenge of forming a stable coalition. Exit polls suggest a CDU-SPD coalition could secure a majority, reducing reliance on smaller parties.
Coalition negotiations in Germany typically take two months. However, the urgency of the current economic and geopolitical situation demands swift action. Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, is stagnating, with a growth rate of just 0.3 per cent. Rising unemployment, inflation, and recession fears dominate public discourse. Many voters attribute welfare cuts to government overspending, particularly on immigration. Economic recovery is the foremost priority, with the Federation of German Industries (BDI) calling for structural reforms rather than minor adjustments. Incremental policies have sustained Germany’s economic model for too long, but the current crisis requires decisive action.
Beyond economic concerns, immigration has become a critical issue. Recent terrorist attacks involving immigrants who were not deported despite legal grounds have intensified calls for stricter asylum regulations and enhanced border controls, even at the risk of conflict with EU norms. With relative stability returning to Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, Germany is expected to adopt a tougher stance on asylum, potentially increasing deportations.
Although the AfD is Eurosceptic, its strong performance does not signify broad rejection of Germany’s EU role or foreign policy commitments. However, its energy policy diverges significantly, advocating for the resumption of Russian gas imports, even if it violates EU directives. While the new government is unlikely to follow this path, the AfD’s rising influence highlights public dissatisfaction with Germany’s economic and bureaucratic framework. AfD leader Alice Weidel has expressed willingness to participate in governance. While other parties currently regard the AfD as untouchable, its growing voter base suggests it may become an unavoidable force in German politics. For now, thematic cooperation on specific issues may be the extent of engagement.
The Greens’ setback likely removes them from power for the foreseeable future, prompting a reassessment of their national strategy. Many critics blame green policies for exacerbating Germany’s economic and energy challenges. A period outside government might allow the Greens to refine their approach and regain public trust.
In eastern Germany, where the AfD has gained ground, the Left Party — descended from the former East German Communist Party — has surpassed the 5 per cent threshold, ensuring Bundestag representation. Surprisingly, the breakaway faction BSW, which had performed well in regional elections, failed to cross the 5 per cent mark. The Bundestag will now consist of five major parties shaping Germany’s future direction.
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Germany’s ability to restore economic vitality is critical to maintaining its leadership role in Europe. As the second-largest contributor to Ukraine’s defence after the United States, Germany’s role may expand if US support for Ukraine wanes. However, fulfilling these commitments requires a robust domestic economy, a challenge the next government must urgently address.
Additionally, Germany must recalibrate its European and transatlantic relations. A potential US-Russia rapprochement under Trump could shift Germany’s strategic landscape. In response, Germany may consider reengaging with Russia on its own terms, potentially through renewed energy imports. Berlin must also balance its economic reliance on China, as German industry depends heavily on Chinese markets. Striking a balance between transatlantic alignment and economic pragmatism will be crucial for long-term stability. The new government’s ability to address these issues will determine Germany’s domestic stability and global standing.
The writer is former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union
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