Opinion Party hila denge
The Congress has been pushing the NCP around. But IPL-gate reveals they can only be pushed so far....
Exactly around this time last year,Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar was riding a wave that had been created out of nowhere by his own party. The Maratha strongman had,out of the blue,emerged as a candidate for the job of prime minister in the event of the highly fractured mandate the electorate was forecast to give. So he was flirting with parties as varied as the Shiv Sena and the Biju Janata Dal,while the Congress watched,mostly speechless. Events were so dramatic that even a proposed election rally he was supposed to address with BJD chief Naveen Patnaik in Bhubaneswar triggered a crisis of confidence between the NCP and the Congress and a last minute aircraft snag rescued everyone,as Pawar could not make it to Orissa.
But one year is a very long time in Indian politics; and no one would know that better than the wily old Maratha strongman. Much has changed for the Congress and the NCP since,and all the news,innuendo,half-truths and conjecture about the role of the NCP particularly that of Pawars family and of his Man Friday,Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel in the IPL mess now,caps what has been a traumatic year for the party and its ties with the Congress. Although it is too early to conclusively say if this crisis will be the turning point in the love-hate relationship between the Congress and its rebellious offspring,reading the tea leaves indicates that this could be a critical milestone.
Congress-NCP ties have mostly had a sense of superficial calmness in Maharashtra. But prick the surface and out comes a plethora of friction,of conflict over everything from development funds and real estate contracts to the appointment of police officers and sharing seats in municipal polls. And both parties have used every such opportunity to publicly indicate that there is no love lost between them and that theirs is only a marriage of convenience. They have also not wasted any time in seeking to grab the others share of political equity,to make up for a division which split the secular vote in one of Indias largest states.
The ongoing chapter in that saga started with Pawar aspiring to become PM yet again,his party seeking a larger share of Lok Sabha seats even though data showed that the Congress had done better than the NCP in a series of local elections in the previous five years,and some Congress leaders talking of going it alone. A Congress unsure of its poll prospects gave in to many of the demands only to be surprised beyond belief when the results turned the tables and pushed its tally beyond 200 nationally and gave it a huge lead vis-à-vis the NCP in Maharashtra. Yet,an unusually benevolent Congress agreed to NCP demands and gave the party three ministerial berths at the Centre even though the NCPs tally had fallen to single digits. But that did not stop the NCP from recreating the drama all over again ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly elections last October,and once again seeing its fortunes take a beating at the hustings.
The Congress has since then had the upper hand in political machinations involving the NCP,both in Delhi,and more so in Mumbai. It has been on the offensive: suggesting that the NCP should merge with the Congress since the raison detre for its existence the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi was no longer an issue. Pawar as agriculture minister was blamed openly for spiraling food prices; while in Maharashtra,the Congress has been showing off its new,aggressive self,thumbing its nose at NCP ministers and frequently trespassing on their territory.
Congress politicians in Maharashtra think the IPL mess NCP has landed itself in is the icing on this cake. But they also know that if push comes to shove and the NCP is made to pay a price it feels is too high and unreasonable,Pawar and co are capable of pulling the plug on the Congress and supping with the enemy,the Shiv Sena. The NCP has indeed given glimpses of this side of its character over the years,whether it was the recent civic polls in which it chose to contest alone,or the infamous Pune Pattern,under which it supported the Shiv Sena to wrest power from the Congress in the Pune Municipal Corporation.
Losing Maharashtra would be too heavy a price for the Congress to pay and the NCP seems confident with that knowledge: a way will be found out of the IPL crisis. The Congress too knows that this is an opportunity it can use to push the NCP on the backfoot for quite a while,without pushing it off the edge. Like that funny TV commercial about politicians and IPL tickets,both sides are probably thinking,party hila denge. For now though,it is the NCP that is more shaken up.
yp.rajesh@expressindia.com