Opinion Pakistan’s next coup

All major political moments in Pakistan have been marked by coups of one kind or another. Pakistan’s last traditional coup was in 1999 following the humiliating end to Rawalpindi’s Kargil war with India.

Dismissed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,the army chief,General Pervez Musharraf,hit back to grab the political crown and wear it for the next nine years.

In a more recent silent coup last year,General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani wrote out a three-year extension for himself as army chief and got his successor as the ISI boss,Lt Gen Shuja Pasha,to hang in for another year.

The powerless civilian establishment in Islamabad — President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani — had no choice but to rubber-stamp Kayani’s decision.

The Abbottabad raid,however,has moved Pakistan’s tectonic plates. The shock waves travelling through Pakistan will produce some wreckage,if not structural change,in the nation’s political and policy universe.

Several frontmen for the Pakistan army — including former foreign minister Shah Mohammed Qureshi — are demanding the resignation of the president and prime minister. There is indeed some speculation that Kayani might throw Pasha to the wolves to protect himself.

There are others who want the civilian leaders to reclaim some control over national security decision-making that has been usurped by the Pakistan army over the years.

All political coups will have winners and losers. Here below are five possible coup scenarios in Pakistan,identified in terms of the winners.

“Zardari’s coup”: As the Pakistan army and the ISI,the self-proclaimed guardians of Pakistan’s geographic and ideological frontiers,twist in the wind after Abbottabad,Zardari has a fleeting moment to put Kayani and Pasha in their place.

The last three times Zardari sought to assert his authority — reaching out to India,bringing the ISI under elected rulers,and mobilising political support in the US Congress for promoting civilian primacy — Kayani slapped him down.

Could Zardari be fourth-time lucky? Most observers of Pakistan would argue that Zardari may not have the personal will,the necessary domestic political support or green signals from Pakistan’s main external benefactors — Saudi Arabia,the US and China.

“Kayani’s coup”: To get out of the spot that he finds himself in,Kayani might decide offence is the best form of defence. He could blame the civilians for giving American intelligence agencies the free run that led to the brazen violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Kayani could dismiss the civilian government and take direct charge of the nation. He could bet that Washington still needs the Pakistan army in the Afghan endgame and that will give him sufficient space to ride through the current crisis.

His decision over the weekend to dispatch Pasha to a friendly capital (Riyadh or Beijing,we don’t know) suggests Kayani is mobilising much needed external support.

“Beijing’s coup”: China’s defence of Kayani last week when the rest of the world was pointing fingers at him was indeed extraordinary. It points to Beijing’s growing partnership with the Pakistan army in securing China’s expanding interests in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.

In underwriting Kayani’s coup — through a fresh package of financial and military assistance — Beijing could present itself as a strategic alternative to the traditional US primacy in the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.

“Obama’s coup”: US President Barack Obama has already won big by launching a daring raid deep inside Pakistan. After being played for nearly a decade by Rawalpindi,Washington has a temporary upper hand over Kayani.

But it is not clear where Obama is headed after Abbottabad. Obama could choose to turn relentless heat on Kayani to come clean on Osama bin Laden,help track down the rest of the al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan,and force the Pakistan army to abandon its three-decade-old alliance with violent extremism.

But there are many in Washington who want Obama to treat Kayani with kid gloves even after Abbottabad. They point to the dangers of pushing Rawalpindi into the hands of jihadis or China. They highlight the dangers of a nuclear-armed failed state in Pakistan.

Most foreign policy factions in Washington agree that Obama needs Kayani and the Pakistan army to organise any kind of exit from Afghanistan. Put simply,there is some chance that the ties between Washington and Rawalpindi might return to business-as-usual,with some minor adjustments after Abbottabad.

“Anarchist coup”: Pakistan’s jihadi groups may not be well-organised or coherent enough to capture power. But they have the capacity to stage spectacular terror acts,including major political assassinations that could produce new facts on the ground.

Whatever the nature of the impending political reordering in Pakistan,India will be deeply affected. Delhi’s conventional wisdom would argue that India cannot influence the outcomes in Pakistan and therefore it is best to remain a passive observer.

While it cannot define the internal evolution of Pakistan,Delhi can certainly complicate the calculations of all other actors across the Radcliffe and Durand Lines.

India must use that leverage — both negative and positive — to isolate the patrons of violent extremism across our western frontiers and defeat their proxies who have operated with such impunity for so long.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi,express@expressindia.com