Opinion Old men in a hurry

The run-up to the 2014 elections has everyone in a tearing hurry to rush to decisions that may prove to be ill-judged.

September 15, 2013 12:15 AM IST First published on: Sep 15, 2013 at 12:15 AM IST

The first rule of poker is that you dont reveal your hand till the last minute,especially if you have a weak hand. This is how Jinnah played the game in the 1940s and won,despite his isolated position. It seems no one has learnt the lesson.

The run-up to the 2014 elections has everyone in a tearing hurry to rush to decisions that may prove to be ill-judged. First there was the break up of the JD(U)-BJP alliance in Bihar. Even if Nitish Kumar did not want to be part of a Narendra Modi coalition,why did he not wait till the end of the year,as he said at first? The consequence of his decision seems to have rebounded to the advantage of Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Then there is this assumption that the 2014 elections have to be fought like a presidential one. Why? The Congress has a problem,which it has had for the past 10 years. Sonia Gandhi decided (ill-advisedly in my view) that her foreignness is a barrier to becoming prime minister. The result is that the position of the prime minister has been devalued. As in Russia,where everyone knows where power lies,whether Vladimir Putin is the president or prime minister. Why should the Congress care who will be the PM?

The RSS has also displayed an uncharacteristic haste in its desire to have Modi declared the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP. Again what is the hurry? He is the principal campaigner and is going around the country looking like a leader. When the seats are counted,it will be time to decide what to do. If the BJP get its usual 180 seats,then conventional wisdom says the Gujarat Chief Minister cannot command enough support of Third Parties to get to 273. But if the gamble pays off and the BJP gets 200 or above,then there is no issue.

Some would argue that Modi is an unknown quantity. Almost no prime minister has come to the top job without a stint in Delhi. The argument must be that being declared PM candidate will give Modi the imprimatur of a national politician. But then if you have to say that,you have already conceded the weakness of your position.

Rahul Gandhis position is also similar. No dynastic heir has won an election and come to power. Both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi came to the top job as a result of tragic deaths. When she fought her first election in 1967,Indira Gandhi got fewer seats than her father in any of the three elections he had fought. Rajiv got the sympathy vote in 1984 but the fragility of his mandate was clear in 1989. Being a dynastic heir is not a vote-winning formula. Maybe that is the reason why though some people wish Rahul would take on the job,he demurs.

In what is likely to be a most fraught and bitter election in Indias history,there are no sure bets. For all the weakness of the UPA,the BJP may still manage to lose the election. Modi may want to fight on governance,but down below in BJP grassroots,someone thinks that by sharpening the Hindu-Muslim division,the BJP can secure Uttar Pradesh. The VHP tried its parikrama but was luckily stopped. But after Muzaffarnagar,people will wonder if the BJP will ever change into a modern party or remain its medieval self. That is how the urban vote could be lost and the BJP will shrink to 180 seats or even fewer,

The Congress is betting on its new entitlements strategy. It may have made a mess of the economy. Inflation may be out of control along with budget deficit and the growth rate may plummet. Give people lots of promises and a few deliveries of cheap goodies and they may vote for you. But there is a danger. If you give people Aadhar,you cut out the middleman,i.e. the politician. Why do they think their own grassroots would collude in suicide? This is why the take-up of Direct Benefit Transfer is so slow.

The leader can win elections but only if his party faithful dont lose it for him.