Opinion Neither win,loss,nor draw
What happens now,in the land of tied Tests?
On 21 August when my wife and I voted in the Australian federal elections for the first time as citizens,we hoped to make a difference,and we did. The country has its first hung parliament since 1940 and the polity closely resembles Indias in the late 80s and mid-90s. Whether we brought the bug here with us is not clear,but what is clear is that hung parliaments can occur even in two-party dominated systems. First it was the United Kingdom and now its Australia in which a political landscape dominated by two parties the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal Party is rife with serious uncertainties. A majority in the 150-seat house is 76,which neither has succeeded in attaining thus far. Labor lost its majority of 17 seats which it had achieved in 2007 under Kevin Rudd,ousting the Liberals under John Howard. In recent months both parties were torn by internal dissensions,in which Tony Abbott won Liberal leadership by one vote,and Julia Gillard took over Labor by toppling Rudd in an unprecedented party coup. Now the fate of both is in limbo,as they reach out to the independents that will decide the shape of the next government. That will take several days.
The country faces a considerable and novel challenge,and as Peter Costello,the former Liberal Treasurer said: Australia will remain in permanent election mode… whoever forms the next government,it will not be very stable,and we are looking at another early election.
This election,characterised by Foreign Minister Stephen Smith as neither won,lost or drawn has many interesting tales to tell. Labor was badly hit in Queensland and New South Wales,losing 8 and 7 seats respectively due to voters anger against the poor performance of the Labor state governments. In Victoria,though,they won three more seats and,in a first,the Green Party saw its first successful candidate there. The elections also saw the youngest ever parliamentarian being elected: 20-year old Wyatt Roy of the Liberals,who defeated his sitting Labor rival with a 2.5 per cent swing. His schoolboyish looks and lack of experience were at the centre of much debate before the elections but anyone who heard his interview after his win would appreciate his calm demeanour,and guess he has a mature head on his shoulders. The Liberals,too,got the first Aboriginal candidate in something Tony Abbott took special note of in his speech later in the evening.
Prior to the elections,Labors popularity was severely damaged due to several controversial policy decisions by Kevin Rudd,including the super profit tax on the mining industry,a botched home insulation drive,and the lack of progress on an emissions trading scheme. As a result,his popularity nose-dived leading to the unceremonious coup by Labor insiders. Rudds sacking seems to have had some effect on voters,especially in Rudds home state of Queensland,where the party has been routed. But as expected Rudd has retained his seat and sent a strong message to his nemeses in the party not to count him out yet.
Interestingly,there was a massive swing of 6-8 per cent in key states against Labor,but it did not necessarily benefit the Liberals. In many constituencies,the Greens got the larger share of the swing then the Liberals; many upset with Labor chose to vote for the Greens rather than the Liberals. It could be said,therefore,that although the Liberals managed to end Labors majority,voters preferred Julia Gillard (50 per cent) as prime minister over Tony Abbott (37 per cent) something also indicated by pre-election polls. Julia Gillard has claimed that she has a better track record of working with the Green Party in the upper,and independents,in the lower house; she could get a crack at retaining power,if Tony Abbott fails to woo enough independents.
Nonetheless it is pretty certain that Australia is in for prolonged political instability,which will mean a weak government,and insufficient decision-making on several issues. This election was fought onpurely domestic issues,as always; but what is worrisome is that both leaders have a dismal record in the foreign policy department,unlike Kevin Rudd and John Howard. Relations with India will remain one of the core foreign policy challenges for the new government; it is unlikely that whoever comes to power will be able to approve the supply of uranium to India,if governing with the support of independents. Besides,both leaders will be looking inwards rather than outwards. Voters will not like another early election. This means that the resolve of both parties to produce a stable government will be put to the biggest possible test,almost 70 years on.
The writer is at Griffith University,Queensland express@expressindia.com
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