Opinion Future imperfect in Egypt

The presidential poll this weekend follows a wave of outrage when Egypt’s Supreme Court called for the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and in a separate ruling also rejected a law that would have barred Shafiq from continuing to run for president. The ruling has prompted fears that the military wants to increase its power. His candidature is perceived as a throwback to repression and an undoing of the revolution itself. Shafiq seeks to defend the military and security establishment,which are the old regime’s vanguards. On the other hand,people are nervous about the Muslim Brotherhood,fearing that if the Brotherhood ever gained power they would never let go. Also,no one knows how they would treat Egypt’s 8 million Christians who represent 10 per cent of the population. The paranoia has heightened. Since the fall of Mubarak,Egypt’s military had promised to hand over power to an elected president by the beginning of July; but now,not only is there no constitution,but there is the prospect of no parliament to write one either.

For Egyptian liberals it is an impossible dilemma — this choice between a candidate from the old regime and an Islamist. Many want,above all,the country to return to normalcy. Egypt’s large middle class is nurturing a deep-rooted disillusionment with revolutions,freedom and democracy. The youth is confident,collaborative,deeply frustrated,and change-oriented. Over all,there is a sense of loss of the spirit of the revolution. Youthful,urban,idealistic,Egypt’s revolution has transformed into a presidential run-off between old rivals. The sceptics have taken over,even the ubiquitous Egyptian humour is jaded and substituted by an air of general paranoia on the streets.

In the end,most Egyptians would be voting as per what they think is good for the country’s economy. Democracy and religion are likely to take a backseat.

And so Egypt’s next president will have to lead amidst a great deal of ambiguity. He would be unlikely to have his powers defined by the time he comes into office. The country has so far lived by a different set of rules. On the road to democracy,like it or not,they will need to go through the process of redefining who they are and how they want to be governed. Identities based on religion,class and ideology will arise from within what had earlier seemed a muted homogeneous population under a dictator. And from there,gradually,Egyptians will put on the table their identity and openly recognise their political choices. Egypt’s first democratically elected leader will have to face the brunt of these challenges.

Leadership in a “start-up” nation will not be easy either. The new normal in the Arab world is change. Revolutions are inherently messy,precisely because their success relies on feelings,intuitions,biases and longings. And then,often when freedom is granted,one does not know what to do with it. The real revolution in Egypt has been the willingness of its people to embrace paradox and chaos in lieu of change. It remains to be seen what Egyptians will make of their freedom.

However,it has been a truly leaderless uprising in Egypt. The revolution itself had no one leader. The mere 50 per cent voter turnout in the first round of the presidential election in May also indicates the rejection of the proposed leadership by Egyptian presidential candidates. Recently,in the Global Leadership Fellows programme on the back of the Middle East,North Africa and Eurasia summit of the World Economic Forum in Istanbul,it was debated if leadership is overrated. Should masses of people still choose to be led by a single representative? Especially when,in a hyper-connected world,leading by an individual’s grand vision or guidance may be obsolete.

Egypt’s future,at least in the medium term,will be plagued by uncertainty — whatever be the result of the presidential election. In this scenario,the real leaders will be Egypt’s common people. They will continue to gradually wade their way through ambiguity.

The writer is senior manager at the WEF’s Forum of Young Global Leaders from Middle East,North Africa and South Asia,and is a Global Leadership Fellow,Views expressed are personal