Opinion Dinosaur or dynamo?

That the Planning Commission is forcing upon itself “a new way of thinking” without necessarily being pushed into it by external factors is in itself commendable. Over the past decades,Yojana Bhavan has become a stodgy organisation,losing its importance as a potent knowledge resource for India’s political economy. Frequently,it has ended up being used by the government to achieve narrow political gains.

There was some hope when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asked a non-politician with globally acknowledged credentials — Montek Singh Ahluwalia — to head it. Unfortunately,Ahluwalia spent his first five years doing more of the same,without really bringing any freshness to the ideas at Yojana Bhavan.

There was nothing remarkable about the making of the Eleventh Plan or its contents. In fact,the joke that,except for the numbers,all Five-Year Plan documents read the same,was told even more after Ahluwalia failed to enthuse in his first stint. Arun Maira,the former India CEO of the Boston Consulting Group,and a member of the reconstituted Planning Commission,would know this better. Dozens of top-class policymakers he interacted with,before taking to the PM a proposal to overhaul Yojana Bhavan,told him that the organisation had lost its relevance.

Now,the end of the Eleventh Plan (2007-12) is just a year away. And acknowledging that there can never be a “tomorrow” for change,Ahluwalia recently signed off on the “new thinking” his officials have proposed in their draft of the approach paper to the Twelfth Plan (2012-17). An approach paper essentially lays down broad contours,providing the contextual background for writing the Plan. The Planning Commission’s officials are still digesting the new approach,and have gingerly started their quinquennial exercise to prepare a long-term strategy for faster,inclusive and more sustainable growth.

Breaking from the past — when a few babus sat together and penned the approach paper — Maira and Pronab Sen,principal adviser to the Planning Commission,prepared a “strategy matrix.” The columns in the strategy matrix comprise forces — big systemic issues affecting every sector — such as land and environment,innovation and enterprises,governance and institutions,and citizens’ expectations. The rows,on the other hand,are sector-specific subjects: macro-strategy,social justice,infrastructure and human capital. This results in some 340 cells. Sen,who has been the lead paper-writer of at least two earlier Plans,would admit that there was no method to the earlier process. It was exclusionary and had no stakeholder involvement. Issues that seemed systemically important to a few found greater focus in the final Plan document.

To make the entire process more inclusive,each officer in Yojana Bhavan has been asked to prepare a two-page note on one cell. The first page talks about the situation “as it is” and the second “what it should be” during the Twelfth Plan period. Simply put,the write-up on each cell will explain how the combination of a particular force and a particular sector will help achieve growth objectives during the next five years. The one-month deadline for completing this exercise ends on October 25. Over a two-three-day retreat,the Plan panel will then shortlist or identify some 20-25 cells crucial to achieving a fast,inclusive and sustainable growth strategy. These will be posted at http://www.twelfthplan.nic.in,an already-registered website. Ahluwalia is not shy of using social networking sites such as Facebook to drive traffic to the dedicated Plan site.

Earlier,besides being exclusionary,the planning process was quite deterministic. It did not conceive of alternative scenarios. For instance,political and civil-society opposition to land acquisition was clearly not something for which the government had budgeted while seeking to aggressively push a development agenda. The cells in the matrix will now describe the impact of such forces on different sectors. Similarly,trade-offs were not explicitly recognised. As India’s chief statistician,T.C.A. Anant,points out,rising prices are not really surprising,now that the lower rung of the population pyramid has money to spare for more food,given the intervention of rural employment guarantee-like programmes. High inflation is a trade-off the government should have been prepared for.

The new strategy matrix will talk about all this and more. Once the Planning Commission firms up its views,it will call for focused consultation with various stakeholders,including — but not restricted to — political parties,state governments,civil society organisations,judiciary,youth,women and the informal sector. There are some who are not convinced that the “new thinking” is necessary and whether it will eventually lead to a structured approach paper and eventually the Plan document. For that,neither Ahluwalia,nor Maira,nor Sen has a ready answer. But then,this is a small risk to take when the option is to let Yojana Bhavan die a dinosaur.

vaidyanathan.iyer@expressindia.com