Opinion With Mark Carney’s win, the stars may be aligning for India-Canada ties
Carney is expected to be pragmatic in his approach towards India as he is looking to diversify Canada’s economic partnerships away from its over-reliance on the US
The Liberal Party’s win is a story of a spectacular rise not only of the party, but also of Carney, a total outsider to Canadian politics just two months ago. 
In Canada, the Liberal Party has won a fourth term in parliament. Although not a majority, the party will form a strong minority government to lead the 45th Parliament. The incoming prime minister, Mark Carney, has turned the fortunes of his party, which was trailing far behind the Conservatives in poll ratings for about two years under Justin Trudeau. Carney took over from Trudeau in mid-March this year and announced a federal election within nine days of assuming office, followed by a 36-day-long campaign leading to victory.
The Liberal Party’s win is a story of a spectacular rise not only of the party, but also of Carney, a total outsider to Canadian politics just two months ago. Carney fought these elections primarily on an anti-Trump agenda. The results prove that he succeeded in evoking nationalistic sentiment across the country against Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state of the US. In his victory speech, he reiterated, “Trump wants to divide us, so that America can own us,” to the crowd, which responded with a resounding “Never”. He succeeded in convincing Canadians that he has a plan to tackle Trump.
What makes this election outcome even more remarkable is Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh losing their seats. Singh, the National Democratic Party (which has now lost official party status) leader, has announced that he is stepping down from the party leadership. Bloc Québécois, the regional party of Quebec, a French-speaking province of Canada, also lost significant seats to the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party under Carney’s leadership is projected to win 168 out of 343 seats, which is technically four short of a majority. The Canadian system, however, functions on the principle of “confidence in the parliament”. So, as long as the Liberal Party enjoys confidence in the parliament (which can be determined from time to time through a vote of confidence, or voting on the Speech from the Throne, or money bills), it can continue to run the government.
What does a Liberal victory mean for India-Canada ties?
Carney is expected to be pragmatic in his approach towards India as he is looking to diversify Canada’s economic partnerships away from its over-reliance on the US. Given the existence of immense complementarities, India-Canada ties can witness significant improvements as Carney forms a stable government. India, too, is optimistic about Carney’s victory and is looking to mend the ties that deteriorated during the preceding Justin Trudeau administration. While Carney took a day to condemn the Pahalgam attack, Prime Minister Modi tweeted promptly, congratulating Carney and extending a hand of friendship.
With Jagmeet Singh out of the political calculus for now, India can hope that Khalistan-related appeasement in Canadian politics will subside for the time being, leading to a positive turn in India-Canada relations. Although the Indian diaspora has traditionally supported the Conservatives, multiple factors contributed to a shift in its support towards the Liberals. Carney seemed to be offering solutions to day-to-day problems, such as housing and rising prices. The Conservatives, on the other hand, seemed to be ignoring the Indian diaspora.
The diaspora’s support for the Conservatives started dropping particularly after Poilievre’s cancellation of the 2024 Diwali event. Carney, on the other hand, struck the right chord, visiting the BAPS Temple on Ram Navmi in Toronto and serving at a langar in a Gurudwara on Baisakhi, both during the election campaign. This shift in diaspora support may not have significantly contributed to the election result, but it definitely constitutes a key part of people-to-people ties. Since these ties are an important pillar of India-Canada relations, alignment between the Indian diaspora and the Canadian government can be a huge asset in the betterment of bilateral relations between Delhi and Ottawa.
While striking a deal with Trump will be Carney’s first international priority as he assumes office, on the India-Canada front, we can expect the reinstatement of High Commissions, resumption of diplomatic ties, and possibly even resumption of talks on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement over a state visit by either leader to the other country.
The writer is assistant professor, Centre for Canadian, US & Latin American Studies, School of International Studies, JNU
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