Opinion Battling for 2012
The Akalis and the Congress open the campaign in Punjab
The two main rivals in the Punjab assembly elections,due in February 2012,sounded their poll bugles on November 1,Punjab Day. Their posturings were curiously different. The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD),which prides itself as a panthic party,got Shah Rukh Khan to dance at the inauguration of the second World Kabaddi Championship in Bathinda,which was introduced by the party with much fanfare last year.
In contrast,the opposition Congress,which likes to wear its secular credentials on its sleeve,launched its Punjab Bachao Yatra from one of the five most sacred Sikh religious places,the Talwandi Sabo. Amarinder Singh,meanwhile,did not let go of the opportunity to accuse Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal of allowing half-naked women to dance in Bathinda.
As the two parties,which have taken turns at ruling the state,try to stake out each others territory,the war is likely to get bitter in the days to come. The SADs alliance with the BJP has proved mutually beneficial and is expected to continue into the forthcoming elections. A new factor this time could be the emergence of a third front led by former finance minister Manpreet Singh Badal,who has tied up with the Left parties and is exploring the possibility of alliance with other like-minded parties to form a sanjha morcha (common front). Also significant could be the BSP it is yet to declare its stand in the polls but may make a difference this time.
Corruption has been a major issue in Punjab,even before the anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare took centrestage. The Congress has been making several allegations against the Akali regime and has announced that corruption will be its major poll issue. When the Congress was in power,it had slapped several corruption cases on Badal and his family members. The charges were dropped only recently. The Akalis,in turn,filed cases against Amarinder and his colleagues for alleged financial bungling.
The Akalis have welcomed Team Annas statement that it would give a call to the electorate to vote against the Congress. As a retort,Amarinder Singh challenged Team Anna to support the SAD if they found the party above board. The Congress believes that,on balance,an anti-corruption campaign would set back the ruling Akalis.
Both the Congress and the SAD have strong,identifiable vote banks and this fact is reflected in the voting patterns. In its best performance in 1980,the Congress won 63 seats,with a vote share of 45.19 per cent; in its worst performance in 1997 it won only 14 seats but still managed 26.38 per cent of the votes. The SAD pulled off its best performance in 1997,having bagged 75 seats with 37.64 per cent votes; while its worst was in 1972 when it won 24 seats with 27.64 per cent votes.
The 2007 election saw a close contest between the two,with the SAD winning 48 seats and the Congress 44 in an assembly of 117. What helped the SAD stake claim to power,though,was the sterling performance by its alliance partner,the BJP. It contributed 19 seats.
However,things could be different this time for the SAD and the BJP. Early this year,allegations of corruption saw the central leadership of the BJP directing all its five ministers to resign from the Badal government. The ramifications have been many: the incident eroded the partys credibility and eventually fuelled dissidence. It has also been losing ground,partly because of the Akalis neglecting the urban areas,which were the strongholds of the BJP. The SAD leaders are aware of the changed situation and are pressuring the BJP to move out of constituencies where the party seems to be in trouble.
The state Congress faces a stiff challenge from within. The dissidents,who dont see eye-to-eye with Amarinder Singh,have been airing their differences in the open. However,after a stern warning from the party high command,they appear to have buried the hatchet,at least until the elections are over. But they will be watched: on whether they will be able to call the shots during the distribution of tickets and the kind of game they will play during the campaign.
vipin.pubby@expressindia.com
Share
