Opinion Arms and the Maoists
Peace looks unlikely in Nepal,if the Maoists make good on their threats....
Nepal has perhaps survived speculation that it may collapse anytime now. The fear,however,has not died yet. Many countries that are crucial to Nepals development continue to categorise it as a fragile state. In private conversations,Western diplomats say candidly that Nepalis have failed to manage the country effectively. And Nepalis administrators have begun expressing their discomfort over the brazen interference of foreigners,including the UN missions,in their internal affairs. Interestingly,Mahindra Rajapaksa,the Sri Lankan president,had advised Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal during their meetings on the sidelines of the NAM) summit,that he must not succumb to dictate and pressure of outside forces and that he must chart out your own path in consensus with your parties at home.
Rajapaksa may not have been the sole influence on Nepals prime minister,but he has begun telling some outsiders to stick to the code of conduct prescribed for diplomats. But internal players are not all that cooperative either. The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M),which came to the democratic process renouncing a decade-long armed movement three years ago has again announced that it would confront pro-democracy forces head-on. To begin with,it will boycott and obstruct the president and PMs movements in the next couple of days.
The Maoists and pro-democracy parties had agreed to work on a consensual basis a fact that international donors,UN and neighbours incuding India (recognised stakeholders in the peace process) keep reminding them of. But the latest Maoist declaration makes it clear that they have chosen confrontation over conciliation.
This has also come as a shock to Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal,who recently told the special office of the Human Rights Commission (OHCHR) here that it would not get extension beyond June 8 as we have enough capability and machinery to deal with the human rights situation,after the Commission appealed against the promotion of a particular Nepal army officer with a poor human rights record.
The government and some political parties have also started criticising the United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN). In some quarter,it is asserted that Nepalis should take the lead role in deciding the countrys future course together. This appears like a review of the past three years,when outsiders have been seen as allies of pro-democracy forces.
But the post-monarchy phase has seen Maoists ruthlessly hijacking the political agenda. They have said they will not accept a parliamentary model,and now assert that they will only support peoples democracy a system in which they decide which parties would be allowed to be part of political pluralism clearly going against the understanding made in the 12-point agreement. They have also been able to successfully block the resumption of arms supply to the Nepal army for which India is now ready.
What could be a better occasion for the Maoists to start a movement violent or non-violent when the state is so weak,and its army almost defenceless after a continuing embargo from India,US and European countries?
Interestingly,they have not yet surrendered their arms. They have only deposited part of their weapons with the UNMIN. A call from Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda,who has recently taken over as the supreme commander of the Peoples Liberation Army after a break of 13 months,will be enough for their combatants (19,000 as certified by UNMIN) to come out of the 28 UN-supervised camps and strike,even symbolically,to achieve their oft-repeated objective,the capture of state power.
The possible collapse of the state is still a debatable matter. But the peace process is bound to collapse,sooner rather than later,if the Maoists do what they have promised and launch a decisive mass movement.
yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com
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