Opinion After another coup
Kyrgyzstan isnt a beacon of hope for democracy in Central Asia
There are basically two schools of thought when it comes to explaining what happened in Kyrgyzstan. Proponents of the democracy school will argue that what we witnessed was a legitimate uprising against an oppressive regime set up by President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The other school,the realists,will explain the April events as a coup against the government organised by a power-hungry opposition supported and financed from the outside. I was in Kyrgyzstan a few weeks ago,and there met with the new interim leader,Roza Otunbayeva.
Nothing I saw convinced me that we have witnessed a democratic change. This was a coup by those who saw an opportunity to oust a weakened president.
Getting to the bottom of what happened in Kyrgyzstan is key if Europe and the US wish to bring stability and tranform Kyrgyzstan and the region. Let me first address what didnt happen. For one,a democratic change didnt take place. The interim government came to power on the backs of a handful of bandits and supporters with access to weapons. This is very similar to what happened in 2005 when Bakiyev came to power flanked by robber barons from the South.
We made the mistake in 2005 of calling the events a democratic change. Bakiyev made it his priority to enrich himself,spreading the wealth along the South at the expense of the North. The result was a deeper north-south divide that finally led to the coup .
The events in April didnt take place without the support of external powers,namely Russia. Also,about 70 per cent of the Kyrgyz economy rests on reselling goods from China to Kazakhstan. This is not a sustainable economy. The majority of Kyrgyz banks are in Kazakh hands.
The notion that Kyrgyzstan can define its own course,and bring about regional change is thus dangerously naïve. So working with its neighbours not against them is the key priority for the new interim administration.The elections to be held in the fall are important,but whoever is elected next will probably not be much different in essence and form from the leader who was last ousted.
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