Rouhanis biggest challenge is repairing Irans image among Sunni Arabs
The landslide victory of Hassan Rouhani in Irans presidential election last month is a clear sign of a political momentum towards pragmatism. It shows how the majority of the electorate wants to improve Irans economic condition by changing relations with its neighbours and ending its international isolation.
Hovering over the background was the diplomatic stalemate over Irans nuclear programme. As tensions grew between Washington and Tehran,with increasing UN sanctions targeting Irans financial institutions and energy sector,Iranian politics entered a new phase of conflict. The 2011 house arrest of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi,the two leaders of the Green Movement,along with growing arrests of political activists,reflected an escalating level of repression. Just weeks before this years election,dissidents and others who participated in the 2009 demonstrations viewed it as a mere show,a ceremonial attempt to consolidate hardliner power.
What changed was that the majority voted to show the conservatives that the country needs a change of direction. The election underscores two historic changes. First,the defeat of the conservative camp. While the conservative factions mobilised their voters on election day,they failed to rally behind a single candidate. In fact,the election showed the intense competition between conservative factions,with serious policy and ideological differences. The disarray in the conservative camp marks its failure to strengthen the ideological underpinnings of Iranian theocracy in the face of growing public discontent.
The intra-conservative competition also underlines the fact that the Islamic Republic is not monolithic,nor is it totalitarian. Many observers,mostly in West Europe and North America,were certain that the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps had plans to rig the election. But the results showed that Iranian politics is more complicated and that,despite authoritarian settings,various limited democratic processes enable competition to play a major role. In reality,however,competitive elections in Iran do not necessarily ensure accountability and transparency,but provide a political opening for popular participation as a way to manage dissent and,ultimately,bolster authoritarian rule.
But opportunities for political participation always carry a risk for authoritarian states. While the Guardian Council pre-determines who can run for office,voters use the electoral opening to demand change by rallying around a candidate. Over three decades,the changing Iranian electorate has participated in numerous elections not because of a single candidate or issue,but to display popular will and possibly cause a major turning point in state-society relations.
This election was no exception. Most campaign platforms were about popular discontent over the diplomatic policies or,more importantly,the economic failures of the hardliners. With double-digit unemployment,rising inflation,a devalued currency and increasing economic isolation,many Iranians publicly voiced their concerns about the future.
During his campaign,Rouhani presented himself as a moderate with a proven record of pragmatic politics. A Glasgow-educated cleric with years of governmental experience,Rouhani advanced to represent the emerging entrepreneurs,women,students and the reformist-minded segment. If the alliance endures factional rivalry,the newly formed centrist-reformist coalition could emerge as an influential political bloc to overcome significant economic challenges with pragmatic policies while seeking to compromise with the entrenched hardliners.
The future administration of the president-elect will most likely be comprised of technocrats and experienced administrators who will seek to lessen tensions with regional governments,especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia,and also with Europe. US-Iran relations will be determined by how far Washington is willing to respond to Iranian demands of maintaining control over its nuclear programme,and also,in turn,by how far Tehran would be willing to be transparent about its nuclear ambitions.
Rouhanis most difficult challenge,however,is to repair Irans tarnished image among Sunni Arabs for its support of the Syrian government. Since it is critical for Iran to advance its sphere of influence and build new economic ties,Rouhani would have to appear to the Sunni Arabs as someone seeking to limit Tehrans involvement in Syria. But this will be enormously difficult since the Supreme Leader and the IRGC determine Irans Syria policy.
The most crucial factor is that Rouhani will have the backing of the majority of the people,who want an alternative to the status quo. To what extent Rouhani will fulfil the popular will and,at the same time,negotiate his way through the hardline power centres of government remains to be seen.
The writer is associate professor of communication,culture and religion,University of California,San Diego
express@expressindia.com
