Opinion A crowd of three

But barely below the surface,mutual concerns about third parties abound. Throughout the last six decades,bilateral ties with other key countries — for example the United States,Russia and Pakistan — have had a great impact on shaping the Sino-Indian relationship.

During the Cold War,Washington was not the main external driver of Sino-Indian relations. That honour went to Soviet Russia. The Sino-Soviet split in the late ‘50s coincided with the emergence of border tensions between Delhi and Beijing. After that,Russia became India’s main security partner while China,Pakistan and the United States drew closer. That regional balance endured for nearly three decades.

In the last few years it is the triangular dynamic between Delhi,Beijing and Washington that has become an important subtext in the engagement between India and China.

If Beijing carefully monitored the warming ties between India and the United States during the presidency of George W. Bush,it might be somewhat surprised by the cementing of the Indo-US partnership under Barack Obama.

Contrary to the widespread perception that Indo-US relations might go south under a Democratic administration,Obama has completed the implementation of the civil nuclear initiative,backed India’s integration into the global non-proliferation regimes,supported Delhi’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council,and endorsed India’s role as an East Asian power.

Although some in Delhi might want to be apologetic about India’s expanding cooperation with the United States,Beijing is leaving no stone unturned in recalibrating its ties with Washington. Within weeks after Wen’s Indian journey,the Chinese President Hu Jintao will head to Washington. The Obama administration is apparently determined to make Hu’s trip a success. The deep financial interdependence between the United States and China prevents both from driving their ties aground,despite the many new tensions that have emerged in the last six months.

The United States and China have many political favours to exchange as they cope with the global and regional security challenges that confront the world. Delhi is deeply aware that its relationship with both Washington and Beijing is thinner than that between the world’s dominant power and its principal competitor. India’s emphasis,therefore,must necessarily be on simultaneous expansion of its relations with both China and the United States.

Friends with Pakistan

Among all the major leaders visiting India this year,Wen is the only one combining the trip to Delhi with another to Islamabad. That,in turn,is likely to severely limit what little Wen might have to offer India on the political front.

Unlike Obama,British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy,Wen might not want to upset China’s “all-weather” friend Pakistan by explicitly endorsing India’s candidature for the permanent membership of the UNSC.

Wen might be even more reluctant to scold Pakistan for harbouring terrorist sanctuaries on its soil. He might also not be in a position to explicitly signal Chinese neutrality on the question of Jammu and Kashmir,which divides India and Pakistan. If Wen announces in Islamabad China’s final political decision to expand nuclear cooperation with Pakistan,in defiance of the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group,Delhi’s suspicion that Beijing has not given up its policy of promoting Pakistan’s strategic parity with India will only be confirmed.

Friendly neighbourhood

As India builds strategic partnerships with Japan and South Korea — two of China’s very important neighbours — Northeast Asia is emerging as a potential new area of disputation between Delhi and Beijing.

The recent deepening of Sino-Japanese tensions have been matched by the growing warmth between Delhi and Tokyo. In the Korean peninsula,India’s empathies for the South stand in contrast to the deep bonds between China and the North.

The Indian and Chinese leaders are hardly convincing when they declare that their ties with third countries are not directed at the other. The time has come for both sides to begin an honest conversation about their relationship to important third countries.

Sino-Indian differences on third party relations are not likely to go away any time soon. A frank dialogue on great power relations and sustained consultations on regional security issues can certainly help minimise the political friction between Delhi and Beijing.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com