Opinion 200 porous miles
Yemen and Somalia,two countries separated by a common problem....
In Yemen,there is wisdom says traditional Arabic folklore. However,in modern-day Yemen there are insurgencies and secessionist movements. There is also the possibility of state failure as President Ali Abdullah Salehs weak government grapples with a plummeting economy,drying water basins and depleting oil reserves.
Yemen until December 25 that is prior to the journey of pant bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was prodding along without international glare. That,the day before,the US and Yemen launched air strikes against extremist strongholds barely made news. However for much of the past year there has been an increased amount of diplomatic activity in and out of Sanaa. May 2009 saw deputy director of the CIA,Stephen Kappes pay a visit to Saleh; in June it was General David Petraeuss turn and in September Obamas counter-terrorism advisor,John Brennan,too visited the country.
Many comparisons have been drawn between Yemen and Somalia recently. The one difference: Somalia is being ignored. It is being used as an example: that of a country gone wrong. But Somalia too is fighting its own Islamist insurgency. International assistance to Somalia was once tried and failed; naturally powers are hesitant in intervening again. But ignoring Somalia will further deepen Yemens problems.
Why? The outfit Somalias weak government is currently battling Al Shabaab has aligned itself with Al Qaedas ideology. In fact as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula took credit for the attempted bombing,Somalia chimed in with praises. A sermon in Mogadishu declared We tell our Muslim brothers in Yemen that we will cross the water between us and reach your place to assist you fight the enemy of Allah… I call upon young men in Arab lands to join the fight there. Gulf security analyst Riad Kahwaji has said that what we are seeing is a pattern of franchises for Al Qaeda opening up.
The Yemen-Somalia connection is strikingly similar to the Afghan-FATA connection. The war in Afghanistan hailed as a victory in 2001,now in its eighth year of active combat has showcased how such sanctuaries,and porous borders,make counter-insurgency difficult.
Yemen and Somalia are separated by less than 200 miles across a narrow sea,which serves as a very porous border. The southern secessionist movement in Yemen has made the link between Somalia and Yemen very obvious. Analysts with Janes and Congressional Research Service note that weapons used by the armies of the south are provided by neighbouring Somalia. Further,Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that Yemens security problems wont just stay in Yemen… theyre regional problems and they affect Western interests.
Take for instance the northern Houthi rebellion in Yemen. Traditionally pitted as a fight between the government and Shia rebels it actually serves as a proxy for a great game in the Middle East. The Houthis are allegedly funded by the Iranians and the government forces are helped and aided by the Saudis. This is a regional,Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry playing out.
Thus the focus upon Salehs government,and its failure to ensure security. In the past Saleh has been quoted saying that ruling Yemen is akin to dancing on the heads of snakes. Yemen,its tightly-knit Bedouin communities,works on loose alliances between tribes. Saleh has been successful in bringing a semblance of unity to the country largely through patronage politics. However,as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq intensified,aid channelled towards Yemen declined. Unable to buy off opposition,Salehs position too plummeted. Experts predict that his authority does not extend beyond the capital. It is estimated that two-thirds of the country are either under the control of the separatists or local tribes. This lack of governance in the lawless mountainous regions has created a vacuum in which Al Qaeda ideology has bred and taken hold.
Yemen has tightened security along its southern and western coasts in order to prevent Al Shabaab militants from crossing over from Somalia. Their success is questionable,as migration from Somalia is on the rise. UNHCR estimates that in 2008 the number of Somalis swimming across was 50,091; in 2009 it increased to 72,753.
Developmental aid to Yemen has been on the increase. 2008
saw a token donation of $8.4 million; 2009 saw a striking rise to $44.3 million and now the Obama administration has pledged $63 million. This is supplanted with a previous and on-going Saudi donation of $2 billion. Britain too has caught on to the Yemen threat: Gordon Brown has pushed for a Yemen Conference alongside the Afghanistan Conference to take place in London at the end of the month.
However,without taking the links between Yemen and Somalias insurgency into account,as well as the weakness of the Somali government,international assistance will amount to only so much. At the conference alongside Yemen,Somalia too needs discussion.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
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