Zubkov on Putin146;s chessboard

Petersburg. Putin placed Zubkov to head the federal agency that investigates economic crimes. His qualifications for the new post are, undoubtedly, his unequivocal loyalty, his unsurpassed knowledge of the legal and illegal location and movement of money in Russia, his administrative capabilities and, of course, his lack of political ambition. With someone as loyal as Zubkov in power, Putin will have his own team in place for the next four years and will gain the option to come back as president after a break.

Russian presidents, we must remember, have full authority to appoint and dismiss prime ministers and their cabinet at will, as long as the parliament ratifies this decision. The Russian Duma has supported Putin8217;s choice by 381 to 47, with only the communists opposing. This is exactly how former president Boris Yeltsin made Putin prime minister and then acting president, before Putin got elected for the first time to the presidentship in 2000. But unlike the situation that had prevailed when Yeltsin was in power, the current Duma fully supports Putin8217;s policies and programmes.

Putin has indicated that Zubkov will be one among several others likely to stand for presidential elections next year, since he is keen to establish that the Russian voters have a democratic choice. Among the other contenders are likely to be the current first deputy prime ministers, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev. Given the trust that Russians repose in their current president and his influence on daily politics, the majority of people will go by his choice. This indicates that they support his policies and believe they have contributed to the strengthening of the Russian state, unlike those of his predecessor.

Putin gained in popularity because he reined in galloping inflation, stabilised the economy, raised wages and, significantly, brought the state back in to regulate key economic and social sectors. But corruption has remained a major problem and Putin has sacked several officials on account of corruption charges against them. As elections draw closer, Zubkov8217;s intimate knowledge of money laundering activities should come in handy.

Zubkov8217;s agenda will be to boost Russia8217;s flagging farm front and give the defence industry a more competitive edge. The Russian economy has depended primarily on oil exports and has become economically viable on account of high oil prices. Industrial growth, in contrast, has been both low and uneven ever since the privatisation drives. Putin is also acutely aware that the Russian military industrial complex will have to compete with the US, which is seeking to corner traditional Russian markets like India.

Further, the US has not dismantled any of the Cold War regimes in either technology or military barriers against Russia. NATO continues to expand to Russia8217;s borders. Russia-US relations are not particularly cordial at this point: Russia is openly critical of the US foreign policy in Iraq and West Asia, while the US critiques Russian democracy and human rights records. The US is also wary of Russia8217;s new alliances with China in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Russia8217;s increasing influence in Central Asia.

Putin8217;s move on Zubkov is in response to western criticism of Russian democracy and especially of his unrelenting control of the Russian media. Russia8217;s democratic institutions remain weak and the country lacks stable and structured political parties. Zubkov8217;s entry will strengthen the pro-Kremlin 8216;Just Russia Party8217; when elections to the Duma are imminent and presidential elections not too far away.

Zubkov certainly has much to prove in the short span of time that is now allowed to him.

The writer is professor, School of International Studies, JNU