Winner doesn146;t take all

Seen from outside, the performance of the Congress in Meghalaya does not appear to be much of a 8216;victory8217;. After all, the party is only the largest group in a hung assembly. But seen from within a state that has not seen a clear majority for any party after 1972, the Congress can take pride in what may be the party8217;s best ever showing at the hustings. While the result does not reflect popular endorsement of the Congress, it does demonstrate the inability of the opposition parties to put up a credible alternative to the party.

Two major social divisions contributed in a big way to the Congress8217;s success. The Congress is the only party in the state that is evenly spread across all three regions 8212; Khasi Hills, Jaintia hills and Garo hill 8212; of the state. Thus it had a big advantage compared to the NCP that is restricted to the Garo hill district which falls into Tura Lok Sabha constituency of P.A. Sangma. This regional divide has also meant that the other leader or ethnicity-based smaller parties are restricted to sub-regions of the state. Though P.A. Sangma8217;s coming back to state politics created an impression that the NCP was coming back to power, eventually Sangma failed to extend his base beyond Garo hills.

Women8217;s vote was the other factor, entirely ignored by the media, that played a crucial role in this election. The post-poll survey done by the CSDS shows an unusually large gender divide in the state: the Congress got 40 per cent votes among women, compared to only 30 per cent among men. In other words, if the women had voted the way men did, the Congress would have fallen about five percentage points below where it is, and that would have changed the political equations entirely. The Congress also benefited marginally from greater support among the less educated voters.

The Congress might wish to present the result as a victory for its record of governance and its leadership. But there is little evidence to support this claim. The Congress government enjoyed an average, and on balance slightly negative, image and so did Chief Minister D.D. Lapang. The only thing that kept Lapang ahead of Sangma in the CM rating was again the regional divide, for Sangma8217;s popularity did not extend to the Khasi areas.

The writer is a researcher at CSDS