Will Mulayam get the equation right?

The decline in Muslim support for the SP in recent elections is a signal to Mulayam to find a way to hold on to the party8217;s old social coalition of Yadavs and Muslims

First it was Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati who grabbed headlines and now it is Samajwadi chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. One for withdrawing support to the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre, the other for extending it.

The intense political rivalry between the BSP and the SP is not new. But it has intensified in recent years as the Congress went missing and the BJP8217;s fortunes declined in UP. During the last few assembly elections there has been a gradual decline in the vote share of the SP and an increase in the vote share of the BSP.

But it was during the 2007 Assembly elections that the BSP turned the tables on the SP, emerging as the single largest party in the state. The BSP8217;s victory march continued in the by-elections held in the state in April. Not only did its candidates win all three Assembly and two Lok Sabha seats, but the Samajwadi Party nominees also lagged far behind the winning candidate. The BSP polled 37 per cent votes while the SP got 26 per cent votes.

With the recent victories, the BSP has managed to consolidate its position in the state while the SP appears to have been maginalised. So, does the defeat in assembly elections and recent by-elections signal the beginning of the end for Mulayam in state politics? Does his support for to the Congress-led UPA government on the nuclear deal issues indicate his desperation for an ally in the next Lok Sabha elections?

Fear of the BSP does seem to have pushed Mulayam towards forming an alliance with the Congress but it may be too early to predict his end.

With Lok Sabha elections round the corner, Mulayam is desperately trying to look for a political ally. In a state where voters are primarily guided by caste considerations, Mulayam stills commands considerable support among the Yadavs. Findings of the CSDS surveys suggest the same is true of the Muslim voters in the state. The two put together constitute about one-third of the state8217;s population. The Yadavs constitute about 15 per cent of the state8217;s population while Muslims make up 18.5 per cent of it. In a multi-cornered contest, Mulayam does have an advantage, though in politics two and two don8217;t always add up to four.

Declining Muslim support for the SP holds a lesson for Mulayam. It has shown him that to consolidate his position, he either needs to look for a new social coalition or to hold on to its old social coalition of Yadavs and Muslims. After all, in the last Assembly elections, the shift of Muslim voters to the BSP did hurt the SP.

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There are sizeable numbers of Muslim voters who have been voting for the Congress in the state in successive elections. An alliance of Mulayam and Congress for the next Lok Sabha elections may help the two in consolidation of the Muslim vote in favour of the alliance. If this happens, there is a fair chance of Mulayam8217;s bouncing back.

But if the UPA goes ahead with the nuclear deal, will Muslims still support Mulayam and the Congress in the next Lok Sabha elections?

That is a million dollar question.
The writer is Fellow at the
Centre for the Study of Developing
Societies, New Delhi