Why did Vajpayee relent?

With the Budget session of Parliament well under way, the BJP is adjusting to its return to the opposition benches. But can the party really...

With the Budget session of Parliament well under way, the BJP is adjusting to its return to the opposition benches. But can the party really formulate future strategy without taking proper stock of its defeat in the 2004 general elections? There are known to be many incorrect decisions made by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the BJP, be it the calling of early Lok Sabha elections or the continuation of the discredited Narendra Modi in Gujarat. One therefore needs to analyse the process of political decision-making and check how the decision inconsistencies took place in the previous government and in its ruling party.

When a manager in a business organisation wants to launch a product, he commissions a market survey. However, while taking political and military decisions, things are not so simple. In the case of the armed forces, the basic research points are the capability, strength, morale, preparedness and deployment of one8217;s own forces. Also of key importance are the parameters of the adversary. Based on this calculated appreciation, military decisions are taken in regard to a possible course of action, or any defensive or corrective measures that have to be instituted while there is time. Nevertheless, quite often the intelligence on adversary forces, their capability and their employment can be off the mark. Similarly, assessment of one8217;s own forces and capabilities can be corrupted because of sycophantic feedback.

For political decision making, similar factors have to be considered in regard to all details about the adversary and his coalition. These conclusions may be inaccurate. These accurate/inaccurate parameters are taken into account, along with the known qualities, strengths and preparations of one8217;s own party or group. This information can also be partially or totally wrong as one8217;s staff is likely to paint a rosy picture in order to 8220;show off8221; to the superior. Therefore, in military and political decisions, very often a course of action has to be decided upon on the basis of incorrect inputs.

Under these circumstances, the leadership has to find ways to react. Some aspects that have to be considered in regard to the adversary are the source and reliability of the information and the informant as well as the validity of the analysis. It is quite possible that this vital information can be coloured by preconceived notions, lack of objectivity or closed-mindedness and mental make-up of the individuals collecting, collating and analysing it. A canny leadership must thus have the ability to sift through all this and navigate an appropriate course of action. A seasoned leader has a wealth of knowledge and experience in men, matters and politics. He has the ability to judge individuals from his own party or from the adversary8217;s. He is able to assess political situations regardless of the rhetoric from either side. It is important, therefore, that personal judgement and 8220;gut8221; feeling be applied to whatever briefing is made by subordinates. And, based on these correctives, decisions and proposed actions are modified, improved upon or cancelled. This 8220;intuitive decisiveness8221; is what differentiates an ordinary leader from an outstanding one.

Vajpayee, for instance, was instinctively against having the general elections till November. However, he did not articulate his views forcefully enough, and allowed himself to be persuaded by some senior leaders that India was 8220;shining8221; and that the BJP had had some success in recent state elections which, they felt, could be replicated at the national level. Hence, elections took place at a time decided by the BJP.

Another example of not forcing his intuitive decisiveness on his party colleagues is the case of Modi. Vajpayee was keen in April 2002 itself to sack Modi. He felt Modi had tarnished the image of the country and the government. So he needed to go. But he failed to carry with him younger BJP leaders. It8217;s a thought: had the BJP got rid of Modi in 2002, the NDA could well have performed better in the elections.

There are other instances of Vajpayee failing to give his stamp to key decisions. He wanted to push through the privatisation of oil PSUs but could not overcome the opposition of Ram Naik and George Fernandes. Similarly, he wanted to secure alliances with regional parties like the AGP and DMK. But he accepted the BJP view that Amma was Hindutva positive and that smaller allies were not needed.

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It can be appreciated that the ex-PM was a gentleman. But the elections were fought by the BJP in his name and so he becomes the fall guy as far as the party and public are concerned.