Who146;s the boss?

When the other G8 leaders met their new Russian counterpart in Japan this week, they may all have had a similar question...

When the other G8 leaders met their new Russian counterpart in Japan this week, they may all have had a similar question on their minds: are we talking to the right man? Is Dmitry Medvedev a real president? Or is he merely Vladimir Putin8217;s puppet and stand-in? So far, the answer seems to be: neither.

At the summit, Mr Medvedev behaved modestly and stuck to the Kremlin line defined by Mr Putin. If Mr Medvedev has potential as an independent decision-maker, he hid it well. This is not surprising, given that authority still lies with Mr Putin. As prime minister, he controls the main levers of power, the state coffers and television. He is more popular than Mr Medvedev. Kremlin insiders call Mr Putin 8220;the boss8221;, referring to Mr Medvedev by his diminutive, Dima or Dama Russian for dame.

Yet Mr Medvedev is more than Mr Putin8217;s obedient shadow. He is, after all, Mr Putin8217;s choice as potential successor. Whether the potential is realised depends on Mr Putin8217;s own moves. If he had really wanted to stay in the Kremlin he could have remained president. Mr Putin also displays no apparent interest in his new job. So why has he not left? One explanation is that the security risks are too high. He is safer in high office. The post of prime minister confers immunity8230;

There are also domestic pressures. Inflation is running above 15 per cent and food prices are rising even faster. The macroeconomic stability that Mr Putin prided himself on is looking shaky. The perception of stability linked to Mr Putin is proving fragile. This may explain Mr Medvedev8217;s talk of the need to modernise Russia8217;s economic system and uphold the rule of law. The rhetoric does not mean Mr Medvedev is departing from Mr Putin8217;s line; all the signs are that they are in agreement8230;Democracy, it says, is preferable not for ideological reasons, but because it is the only effective way of resolving conflicts among the elites and protecting their financial interests. Liberalisation must start from the top and be tightly managed by the Kremlin. By staying in power as prime minister Mr Putin at least has a chance to revise the legacy of his rule. Stepping aside would be the best measure of his success.

Excerpted from an article in 8216;The Economist8217;