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This is an archive article published on January 26, 2007

West by northwest

Putin8217;s visit is proof of India8217;s enhanced ability to keep old and new friends

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has just completed his fourth and, in all probability, his last state visit to India. It is fitting that the man who has stood at the helm of a remarkable political and economic recovery by Russia as well as the turnaround in Indo-Russian relations was the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations. It could turn out to be a highly symbolic farewell.

It is an equally appropriate time to review the results of the visit and the state of play in the Indo-Russian engagement. Without doubt, the highlight of the visit is the joint statement on cooperation in the civilian nuclear sector. While it can be seen as an indirect endorsement of the Indo-US nuclear deal, it also is a positive declaration of Russia8217;s commitment to help India get rid of the shackles imposed on it by the international community.

The joint statement is not merely about setting up four additional reactors at Kudankulam, pending changes in the Nuclear Suppliers Group rules, but also an affirmation that India has an important role to play in evolving a new international nuclear non-proliferation regime as well as in promoting and contributing to international projects aimed at developing new civilian nuclear technologies.

Importantly, India8217;s commitment to strengthening and deepening civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia will go a long way towards assuaging any concerns Moscow may have had about India8217;s growing closeness with the United States and New Delhi8217;s commitment to a long-term strategic relation with Russia. A positive side effect of the agreed positions is that it also helps underscore that the Indo-US nuclear deal will not limit India8217;s options in terms of who it wants to collaborate with in the civilian nuclear energy sector.

While the commitment to jointly work in the civilian nuclear sector is a reflection of this country8217;s growing influence in the international arena, it is the military-technical collaboration with Russia that is the mainstay of the bilateral relationship. Here the agreement which would have gladdened Putin8217;s heart is the 8220;in-principle decision to jointly develop a new Multi-Role Transport Aircraft8221;.

The Russians have been pursuing this project for some time and they will hope that its fruition will contribute towards Russia maintaining its role as India8217;s primary partner in the military-technical sphere. Moscow would have been even happier if the agreement on joint development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft was couched in language that was less vague. However, at this stage, Moscow appears to have accepted that this will take some more time to conclude. Apart from this, agreements were concluded on the production in India of engines for the MIG aircraft and the purchase of some other items of military hardware.

Over all, the agreements in the military-technical sector and the tenor of discussions should contribute to Russian satisfaction with the level of cooperation and distance their fears about the immediate impact of India8217;s proclaimed desire to diversify the sources for military hardware and technologies.

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Putin8217;s visit also resulted in several other agreements. The sheer span of the areas covered by these agreements 8212; from space exploration to science and technology to cultural exchanges 8212; is a testament to the long-standing and deep ties between the two countries.

On the political front, the joint statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Putin highlighted in a probably unparalleled manner an identity of views between the two countries on all major international issues of mutual concern 8212; Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, West Asia, United Nations reform, India8217;s membership in the UN Security Council and international terrorism.

Significantly, the joint statement of the two leaders talks about working jointly towards contributing to Central Asian stability and security. It speaks about promoting 8216;practical cooperation8217; among the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO. This, in conjunction with the views expressed on Afghanistan, is a clear indication that Russia is keen that India plays a role in Central Asia commensurate with its growing stature.

The emphasis on promotion of trilateral cooperation between India-Russia-China in the joint statement is another indication that Russia views India as a strategic partner in Asia and is willing to contribute positively towards India8217;s emergence as a major player in international affairs.

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Amidst all this elation and bonhomie there is, however, one area that is disturbing. It is the vital area of economic relations. No amount of words and declarations of noble intent can hide the fact that bilateral economic ties between India and Russia are virtually stagnating. Paradoxically, this is not for lack of potential or funds. Both countries have several areas of economic synergy and are awash with money. Unless the two governments are able to generate interest towards each other among the business circles of the two countries and bridge the perception gap, the plans to raise bilateral trade to 10 billion and promote the international North-South transport corridor will remain nothing else but noble intentions.

Although some measures were announced in the hydrocarbon sector, these are clearly inadequate. India should have sought and secured a clearer commitment from Russia towards India8217;s energy security in this area in addition to the commitments on the nuclear front.

These lacunae reflect some of the gaps in perception the two countries have about each other. For New Delhi it is important to realise that a vibrant strategic partnership with Russia is in India8217;s national interest. Such a partnership, not constricted by any other bilateral relationship, can only provide that extra strategic space that India needs in determining the contours of its growing ties with other world powers.

If India ignores this significant aspect of its bilateral relationship with Russia it does so at its own peril.

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The writer is a senior fellow Eurasia at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

 

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