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The Congresss decision to have only state-level alliances will be tested in Bihar

The Congress partys freshly announced determination to work at alliances only state-by-state and not by going into the general elections as a coalition with a uniform agenda is beginning to be tested. That decision hasnt affected its solitary status in Andhra Pradesh where the Telangana Rashtra Samiti will ally with the Telugu Desam and the Left,denting further the Congresss chances in a state which provided the UPA with 35 seats in 2004 but Bihar is another matter. The Congress is no longer much of a player there: Lalu Prasads RJD felt justified in offering it only 4 seats out of 40 in 2004. And yet,no less than Andhra,Bihar was central to the UPAs fortunes that year,with the alliance winning 29 of those 40 seats: the Congress won 3 of its 4,the RJD 22 of 26. Ram Vilas Paswans LJP,however,won only 4 out of its allotted 8,well below its partners strike rates.

Paswan appears to have been quietly seething about this ever since,holding the RJD responsible. And thus the rapid-fire developments of the past few days his claim that the LJP will fight all 40 of Bihars seats,followed swiftly by the announcement of actual candidates for half of those; as also the carefully articulated statement of intent that he,and not Lalu,should be the governing coalitions figurehead in Bihar. For the Congress,this could be disastrous: if,in fact,the elements of the UPA including the NCP,which took one seat in 2004 do not manage to get their act together before nominations are officially filed,the BJP and the Janata Dal U,which Paswan left in 2000 while declaring it dead,will find things even easier-going than otherwise.

Here is visible,thus,the pitfalls of not going in as a coalition: the Congress has left the incumbent space open,and one of its allies has made a play for it. Of course,nothing is certain when Lalu is involved: he has avuncularly invited all those who wish to contest whatever seats to go ahead,of course,why should he care? Perhaps he really is the ideal coalition manager; or,perhaps,he knows something we do not.

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