One winner,many losers

In he week after Indonesias parliamentary election on April 9th,the much-criticised election commission tabulated less than 7.5 per cent.....

In he week after Indonesias parliamentary election on April 9th,the much-criticised election commission tabulated less than 7.5 per cent of the estimated 123m votes cast. But five independent quick counts,based on samples of several thousand polling stations,produced almost identical results. So no surprises are expected.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is the undoubted winner. His Democratic Party almost tripled its vote from the last election in 2004 to take first place among the 38 contesting parties with a preliminary 20.5 per cent. Golkar,led by Jusuf Kalla,the vice-president,and the largest party in the old parliament,is one big loser,with 14.5 per cent down from 21.6 per cent. So is the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle,or PDI-P,of Megawati Sukarnoputri,a former president,also with 14.5 per cent 18.3 per cent.

A cluster of Islamist parties saw their combined support slump from 39 per cent to 29.5 per cent. Only the Prosperous Justice Party,or PKS,the most Islamist party,which came fourth with about 8.4 per cent,bucked the trend. Nine parties appear to have passed the threshold of 2.5 per cent of the national vote needed to win seats in the 560-member parliament. These include two new parties,Gerindra 4.5 per cent and Hanura 3.8 per cent. Their leaders are former generals,respectively Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto.

The election was undoubtedly chaotic with more than 1,000 reported electoral violations,twice the number recorded in 2004. But despite loud,if largely baseless,cries of foul by some losers there is little likelihood the result will be nullified.

It was striking that popular,which usually also means competent,regional officials did well. In at least three of the 33 provinces,the party of the popular governor not only won but did markedly better than elsewhere. Directly elected local officials seem certain to grow in importance as national politicians.

Attention now turns to Julys election for the powerful presidency. Candidates must be nominated by parties,or coalitions of parties,that won more than 20 per cent of the seats or 25 per cent of the popular vote in the parliamentary election. There could be as many as four pairings the president and vice-president run as a ticket. But it is hard to look beyond Mr Yudhoyono.

One exit poll of 7,500 voters gave him 42 per cent support,Ms Megawati 13.4 per cent,Mr Prabowo 5.7 per cent and the rest even less. In another poll,conducted in February,Mr Yudhoyono scored 64 per cent to Ms Megawatis 23 per cent in a head-to-head race.

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Mr Yudhoyonos dilemma is his choice of running mate. He has indicated he wants a strong parliamentary base and so Mr Kalla is the most obvious choice. But Golkar is deeply divided and Mr Kallas enemies have been energised by the partys poor showing. PKS is lobbying hard for the vice-presidency but might cost the secular Mr Yudhoyono votes and should be satisfied with a few cabinet seats. Mr Yudhoyono is expected to make his choice once Golkar has finished its bloodletting.

If Golkar sticks with Mr Yudhoyono,his opponents face an uphill struggle. The appeal of Ms Megawati,whom My Yudhoyono trounced in 2004,is waning but no other PDI-P figure has a remotely similar stature. Her best chance of unseating Mr Yudhoyono may be to swallow her considerable pride and join a Prabowo ticket. But most analysts reckon that,whatever the pairings,only a huge unforeseen scandal can halt the Yudhoyono juggernaut.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009