Nitish factor gives NDA upper hand

Rabri faces tough fight in safe seat of Sonepur; RJD banking on Prabhunath to pull some votes.

Forty-Eight seats across West and East Champaran,Gopalganj,Saran,Siwan and Vaishali will go to polls on Thursday in the third phase of the Bihar Assembly election. The ruling coalition had put up a good show in these seats in the last Assembly elections,and with development seemingly making a dent in the caste-ridden politics of the state,it is likely that voters may again swing in NDAs favour.

While RJD chief Lalu Prasad has been working out his caste arithmetic and trying to woo EBC and SC voters with better welfare sops than Chief Minister Nitish Kumar,he finds the battle tough in his Lok Sabha seat of Saran that gives the NDA an advantage on seven of the 10 seats.

Former CM Rabri Devi,who decided to contest from Sonepur Saran,besides her Raghopur Vaishali seat,is also tightly placed with evenly-populated Rajputs and Yadavs at Lalus first political turf,Sonepur. The BJP has fielded Vinay Kumar Singh. The party claims that Singh has a clean image and is very accessible. Lalu has chosen Sonepur as a safe seat to field Rabri,and she can expect a little edge over Singh with all chances of Yadav vote polarisation in RJDs favour. The only worry for her is over 80,000 EBC and SC votes,who seem to be in Nitishs favour.

Retaining the Raghopur seat may also prove to be difficult for her,as she faces public resentment with Yadavs peeved at Rabri seldom visiting the constituency after winning the polls.

In Sarans Chhapra seat,Lalu hopes for help from former MP Prabhunath Singh,who left the JDU for the RJD. But former minister and BJP nominee Janardhan Singh Sigriwal seems to have a slight edge over RJDs P R Singh. The Nitish factor will hold the key and can see Sigriwal through, said Sangram Singh,a Chhapra resident.

The JDU also has an edge in Ekma. Nitish had visited party candidate Manoranjan Singh Dhumals village just before the polls with a clear intent to woo upper caste voters after the bataidari confusion. Other seats where the NDA has an edge are Manjhi,Amnaur,Parsa and Garkha.

The Prabhunath factor may work for the RJD at Baniapur where RJDs Kedar Singh has an advantage over JDUs Virendra Ojha. The RJD also has a slight edge in Marhaura.

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Of the eight Siwan seats,which is known for voting on both Hindu-Muslim and caste lines,the NDA seems to have an edge over others in at least six seats. Though the erstwhile Sultan of Siwan,Shahabuddin,has been out of the picture officially,his supporters have been trying to polarise Muslim votes in RJDs favour.

The JDU has a slight advantage at Darunda but there is triangular contest between the JDU,RJD and Congress at Barhariya. The Prabhunath factor may work for RJDs Manikchand Roy against JDUs Damodar Singh at Maharajganj,which is Prabhunaths home turf. If the RJD loses this seat,it will have no use for Prabhunath, said a RJD worker at Maharajganj.

Gopalganjs six Assembly seats,like Siwan,are also traditionally known for voting on religion and caste lines. Despite an overriding Nitish factor,the caste factor has not died down completely. BJPs Subhash Singh Gopalganj and Rampravesh Rai Barauli have an edge due to the Nitish factor. Everyone seems to be in favour of the Nitish-led NDA, said Mithilesh Kumar,a Gopalganj journalist. Incidentally,the Congress has fielded Sadhu Yadav,Lalus brother-in-law,from Gopalganj.

The RJD has an edge over the JDU in Baikunthpur. The Bhore seat,however,may slip away from the RJDs grip with its MLA Anil Kumar contesting as Congress nominee. The newly-carved Hathua seat gives slight edge to JDUs Ramsevak Singh.

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West Champaran can throw up mixed results with RJD-LJP,NDA and Congress engaged in a fierce battle for its nine seats. Minister and BJP candidate Renu Devi is tightly placed at Betia against LJPs Birbal Yadav and Congresss M M Tiwari. Only the Nitish Kumar factor can save her, said G N Jha,a Betia resident.

The Congress has an edge in Sugauli and the RJD at Harsiddhi. Former minister Chandramohan Roy BJP may be through from Chanpatia,where he had to shift because of his old Ramnagar seat getting reserved now.

Of the eight Vaishali seats,the NDA has an advantage in five-six seats. LJPs Ramakishore Singh and BJPs Achyutanand Singh have a tough duel ahead at Mahnar. LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan can hope for his magic to work in his home turf. At Hajipur,there is a triangular contest between the LJP,BJP and Congress with a slight edge to BJPs Nityanand Rai,courtesy the EBC/ SC factor.