How to read the results

amp;149; If the two big national parties together add up to less than 272,then smaller groups would be emboldened. If they are well above that,it is a jolt to the ambitions of the non-BJP,non-Congress brigade.

amp;149; In UP,anything less than 30 seats each is a blow to the SP and BSPs national ambitions. The SP may be a more pliable ally if it slips far below its 2004 tally. The BSP too,could consider changing its tune,if it senses anti-incumbency in the state.

amp;149; If of the non-Congress,non-BJP parties,no one party bags more than 40 seats,it shifts the centre of gravity to the larger of the two big national parties.

amp;149; The results for state Assemblies in three states Andhra Pradesh,Orissa and Sikkim are also due. They are likely to have an impact on who gets supported by regional parties TDP,Praja Rajyam and TRS in Andhra and BJD in Orissa at the Centre. Shifts away from traditional choices could be negotiated and,depending on the result,talks of the Congress offering the Jammu and Kashmir model a sharing of the chief ministership in case of lack of majority in the state could tempt.

Signposts

Constituencies to watch out for as they signal wider trends:

Lucknow

It is the big prize in Uttar Pradesh. Repeatedly won by Atal Bihari Vajpayee,the BJP stalwart and prominent Brahmin face,if the party keeps it despite Vajpayees absence,or alternately,if the Congress wrests this seat,it has huge symbolism. The Congress has H N Bahugunas daughter,Rita Bahuguna,fighting from here. She is also the state Congress chief. Lalji Tandon retaining it for the BJP will be crucial for him and his party too after all,the road to Delhi,they say,goes through Lucknow.

Varanasi,Mathura and Ayodhya

These temple towns are crucial symbols none of them returned a BJP MP in 2004. A psychological marker of sorts,if the BJP is on a revival path,it is important for them to wrest these seats.

Pilibhit and Aonla

These and other seats in the Terai belt are important considering Varun Gandhis allegedly inflammatory communal speeches. If they return the BJP with huge margins,it may be an indicator of which way to go for the party,at least in this state. Defeats or even slender margins may ensure that they distance themselves from such speeches in the future.

Gandhinagar

The BJPs prime ministerial candidate,Lal Krishna Advani,is contesting from here. The margin of his victory would again have considerable psychological significance.

South Mumbai

A sitting Congress seat. If the BJP-Shiv Sena combine manages to win it,it would be an important sign as the November 26 attacks took place here. If not,it could be an indicator of what approach to terror has the electorates approval.

Ponnani

This Kerala constituency witnessed a bitter battle between the Left Front constituents,the CPI and CPM. In case the Left CPI candidate loses this seat,bad blood between the Left partners could be more public and weaken an already factionalised Left Front. This,incidentally,is the only seat that the Congress-led UDF won in 2004.

New Delhi

In the eighties and then nineties,it saw Jagmohan and L K Advani fight and win here. Now,the giant killer from the Congress,Ajay Maken,is in the race. If BJPs Vijay Goel wins,the Congresss stranglehold on the Capital would have been broken.

Chennai

With three parliamentary seats,has been a DMK bastion for 12 years running,and except in 1991 and 1996,it has returned DMK consistently since 1977,with vote-shares crossing 55-60 per cent. If AIADMK known for its appeal in rural areas and among women is able to dent the DMK here,its a key indication of which way the wind is likely to blow in the Assembly polls,due in two years. If not,then all is open for the battle for the Assembly.

Darjeeling

The BJP smells a chance,a psychological high,if it wins in this constituency in West Bengal.

Burdwan district

Or rather,the three parliamentary seats in the so-called Red Fort in Bengal Burdwan-Durgapur,Burdwan-East and Asansol. If the Oppositions vote share rises dramatically,even if the seats remain with the Left,its alarm bells for the Left,firmly in place here for 32 years.

Bathinda

It witnessed a battle royale between the Punjab Chief Ministers daughter-in-law and Congress leader Amarinder Singhs son. A defeat for the Badals could be bad news for the Akali Dal who have set aside so much for the family.

States

Andhra Pradesh

This was a key Congress state in 2004,giving them the largest chunk of MPs 29. In case the Congress gets trounced here,it could be a big jolt to its dream of emerging as the single-largest party.

In the Assembly,if YSR Reddy scrapes through,it may force the TDP to review its alliance with the Left and the TRS and it may contemplate going back to the NDA.

In the Assembly,if YSR Reddy does not make it,and the Opposition just about does,or needs TDPs or Chiranjeevis seats,the Congress appears to be offering what has been termed as the Jammu amp; Kashmir model cooperation at the Centre offered in return for cooperation at the state level for a regional ally. Its a new and untested formula,but could indicate regional parties stands at the Centre.

Orissa

In case Naveen Patnaik makes it back as Chief Minister on his own,he can operate as he pleases. But if he needs support to be CM,he might be tempted to back the UPA or NDA or at least abstain in order to keep the state.

Tamil Nadu

Last time,this state had given all the seats 39 plus 1 in Puducherry to the DMK-led Front. This year,if it is an AIADMK-led sweep,it would have an impact on the Centre. If not,both DMK and AIADMK would remain equally attractive as alliance partners. A show weaker than the ruling alliances may tempt AIADMK to rethink her policy of not going with the BJP.

West Bengal

In case the Left sinks below the 26 mark,it would be a serious jolt. In case Congress which has six seats currently reduces its tally here,it may be tempted to not go in for an alliance with the Trinamool Congress in the Assembly polls. The only certainty is Trinamool doing better than before it had one seat,Mamatas own,in 2004.

Uttar Pradesh

The story from the state which has given India the most Prime Ministers,is the possible resurgence of the BJP and the Congress. If the Congress improves its tally of nine and BJP increases its tally of 11,it could be the beginning of a period of consolidation.

The single-largest party in the state would be a crucial thing in Indias biggest state,and BSP and the SP are fighting with this in mind.

Maharashtra

This state has seen the Congress-NCP returning in the Assembly polls too. If the BJP/Shiv Sena can damage the incumbent here,it may make it difficult for the Congress and the UPA to end up as the single-largest party or combination.

A good showing by the Congress-NCP will force Shiv Sena and the BJP to reinvent their politics here which,after UP,sends the largest numbers of MPs to Parliament.

Bihar

If Lalu/Paswan get wiped out,it will be a blow for the UPA,but also may open a door to make overtures to Lalus bete noire,Nitish Kumar. Nitishs options are always open,but his moving away may not be as easy for him,as is assumed,as his state government depends upon the BJP and he may hesitate to go with a resurgent Congress.

If the Lalu/Paswan combine does not get wiped out,but is in the range of 15-17,they may be reconciled to going with him,but not letting Lalu squeeze too much,with his reduced strength.

Gujarat

The BJP has 14 of the 26 seats here. If the Modi magic has to be seen to work,they need to drastically improve upon this. A stagnation,or a decline would be good news for the Congress,and chip away at the Modi myth.

Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

The Congress drew a virtual blank here in 2004. Any improvement here a total of 65 seats would be good news for them,and conversely,its equally important for the BJP to keep the Congress as low here as possible. These states are crucial in the scramble for Delhi.

Kerala

With 20 seats,which has alternated between the Congress-led UDF and the CPM-led LDF,the odds seem stacked against the incumbent Left Front. If it scores in single digit,a deeply divided Left Front both,within the CPM and between the CPM and allies will see a further dip in its stock.

Northern states of Jamp;K,Punjab,Haryana,Himachal,Uttarakhand and Delhi

Much ignored as the numbers in the bigger states are being counted,these small states add up to 45 a fair amount in a close contest. Winning Delhi where the Congress holds six of the seven seats would damage the BJPs morale considerably.