Colonels turn

When a dictator goes is always a moment of breach,the crossing of an invisible line which tips the scale beyond recovery. We have just seen that happen in Egypt. And the world is observing how and when the scales will tip,if at all,for other Arab regimes witnessing popular revolt. In the end,Hosni Mubarak left without a cataclysm in his wake,although how soft Egypts and Tunisias post-revolutionary landing will be is unknown. Across Egypts western border,Libya is a different ballgame. Having endured Ottoman suzerainty,Italian colonialism,Rommel and Montgomerys tank duels in World War II as well as a brief monarchy,Muammar Gaddafi,in 1969,had offered Libyans what appeared then an attractive alternative an organic state almost like no other. Oil added to Tripolis fierce anti-colonial assertiveness. What it didnt generate was the distribution of the wealth,and Libya never boasted the educated,politically aware middle class thats been so pivotal for Cairos Jasmine Revolution chapter. Yet,all that seems to have changed irretrievably overnight,although the besieged regime has begun large-scale retributive violence.

The moment Gaddafis fate appeared to tip over to the wrong side of history was perhaps the successive resignations of his diplomats in the US,India,at the UN,the Arab League protesting the brutality of the regime against demonstrators. The fear about Libya is that Gaddafis was always the regime expected to depart with bloodshed. The crackdown tends to confirm those fears. Unlike the violence used in Egypt,Tunisia or Bahrain,the Libyan regimes actions have been severe and there are reports of military aircraft firing at protesters.

Gaddafi appeared on state TV for less than a minute on Tuesday morning to deny rumours that he had fled to Venezuela. Even as he used the half-minute to call the international media dogs,the picture of him in the passenger seat of an ageing vehicle with an umbrella to shield himself from the rain belied his thunder. Libyans,for the 41 years of Gaddafis reign,cared little about their government. Now they do. Their coming this far is the result of Gaddafis autocratic and eccentric rule.