Chirus endgame

A PRP-Congress pact would likely end in a merger...

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Chirus endgame

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The Congress party in Andhra Pradesh has just bought an insurance policy from the actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi. In the event of late Rajasekhar Reddys son and Kadapa MP Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy walking away with even a handful of Congress legislators,the Congress wants Chiranjeevis Praja Rajyam Party PRP numbers to bail out the Rosaiah government. Congress managers in Delhi are acutely aware of their partys precarious position in the state. The party has 156 MLAs only a wafer thin majority in a house of 294. They probably suspect that Jagan has not only the ability but also the willingness to fold up the Congress government in the state,a suspicion strengthened by Jagan Reddys recent actions. The Congress high commands latest manoeuvre may ensure the Rosaiah governments survival,but it could very well lead to the disappearance of Chiranjeevis Praja Rajyam.

The newspaper and the television channel owned by Jagan have been,of late,scathing in their attacks against the Rosaiah government. They accuse the government of watering down the welfare schemes launched by his late father. He repeatedly told his audience during his tours that they should wait for the day when he brought back the golden era of YSRs rule. The thinly veiled attacks on the Rosaiah government were not unnoticed in Hyderabad and Delhi. Nor did he make any particular effort to conceal his chief ministerial ambitions. From his first public speech in a massive condolence meeting after his fathers tragic death to his last address during the Odarpu Yatra his tour to console the families of those who died of shock on hearing of YSRs death Jagan has not cared to make even a token mention of his loyalty to either the Congress or its leadership. His resolve to tour the Telangana districts,defying clear signals from the high command to call it off,has further alienated him from the party. Or to put it the other way: with that he made it clear that he cared little for the wishes of the Congress high command. Even Veerappa Moily,considered to be soft towards the boy,is believed to have thrown up his hands in desperation then.

Meanwhile,after a disappointing performance in the 2009 general election,Chiranjeevis PRP faced an uncertain future. Many prominent leaders who had come to the party from the Telugu Desam Party and the Congress returned: this homecoming nearly emptied the PRP of its leadership. Large-scale desertions by its cadre forced it to close down its offices in most of the districts; MLAs elected on PRP tickets by and large warmed to the ruling Congress,and were seen more at the chief ministers residence than at their party headquarters. There was a strong rumour,while YSR was alive,that many of the PRP MLAs were about to cross the floor. It was believed that they halted only because neither the Congress nor those MLAs knew how to work it without attracting disqualification.

The first flush of support which the PRP garnered during the 2009 election did not stay. It drew a near-blank in the local body elections that took place in Hyderabad and elsewhere,and its performance in the legislature was lacklustre. Its two MLAs from Telangana quit the party in protest,leaving it with barely one member in the region after the separatist agitation gained political momentum in Telangana since last December. Faction-ridden Rayalaseema still remains inhospitable to a third political force. The two PRP MLAs from the region won on the strength of their factional background,rather than on account of the charisma or caste appeal of the partys leader. The best outlook for PRP in the best of political weather is that it can hope to have a subsistence political presence only in the coastal region. But the emerging political scenario could offer it an opportunity to wield political influence disproportionate to its strength.

Jagans defiance of the Congress high command and the latters political response could breathe new life into the moribund PRP. What kind of role it could play in the states unfolding political drama will depend upon the way it carries on its relations with the Congress. At the end of the day,there remains a very real possibility that it could vanish from Andhras political scene; the Congress could gobble it up and digest it without a trace. The ragtag remainder of the PRP will not be an unwilling prey for the wily Congress.

However,if its liaison with the Congress is handled deftly by the PRP,it could be leveraged to consolidate its sphere of influence,although limited in its social and geographical appeal. Given its leaderships inexperience and more importantly,its political fatigue the former scenario seems more likely. A PRP-Congress understanding could have both intended as well as unintended consequences. It could neutralise the Jagan threat to the Rosaiah government. And it could also perhaps stamp the PRP out of existence. Merger with the Congress will be too strong a temptation for the PRP to resist.

The writer is director,Centre for Public Policy Studies,Hyderabad,and a political commentator

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