Battle for Congress

Democrats made their last-minute appeals Monday. Michelle Obama headed to Las Vegas and Philadelphia as Vice President Joseph R Biden Jr travelled to Vermont and former President Bill Clinton raced up and down the East Coast. Obama hunkered down in the White House,conducting a few radio interviews.

Obama said the fate of his policy agenda would depend on having allies in Congress as he pressed supporters to turn out and vote in a bid to minimise Democrats losses. Everybody who is listening: Just remember,the future is yours to shape. But if you don8217;t get involved,somebody is going to shape it for you 8230; one of the best ways to do that is to vote today, Obama said in an interview on Los Angeles radio station KPWR. He cited a return to economic growth albeit slow and halting plus a sweeping healthcare overhaul and a US troop drawdown in Iraq among his achievements.

On the eve of an election that could make him speaker of the House,Representative John A Boehner of Ohio,the minority leader,rallied Republicans in Cincinnati,praising as patriots the voters who have the audacity to speak up in defence of freedom,the Constitution and the values of limited government. Here is a guide to some of the trends to watch for:

EARLY DECISIONS

Polls close in Kentucky first,so the races there will be an early clue to how the polls are going. In the states Senate race,Rand Paul,the Republican and a Tea Party favourite,has been pulling ahead of Jack Conway,the Democrat. Another person to watch is Representative Ben Chandler,a Democrat who is fighting to survive in Kentuckys Sixth Congressional District.

In Virginia,Obama and his political team will be nervously watching the returns in the Fifth Congressional District,where Representative Tom Perriello,a freshman Democrat who voted for the health care Bill and Obamas other major initiatives,is seeking to hold on in a conservative part of the state.

In Ohio,five close races could help decide if Republicans can quickly claim to have retaken the House from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

THE TEA PARTY

An analysis by The New York Times found that 138 candidates for the House and Senate claimed support from the Tea Party movement,and dozens of them could find themselves part of a Congressional Tea Party caucus Wednesday and in a position to exert substantial influence on the Republican Party.

But assessing the movements success will not be a simple numbers game. If big-name Tea Party favourites lose to Democrats in places like Alaska,Colorado,Delaware or Nevada,the Republican Party could be left with a decidedly mixed impression of the movement and a renewed debate over whether Tea Party fervor made it harder not easier for Republicans to seize control of the Senate.

The outcome of those contests will also help determine the political strength of former Gov Sarah Palin of Alaska,the self-described godmother of the Tea Party. Democrats have some hope that they could snatch the seat if Republicans split their vote.

THE OBAMA MAP

As the polls go on,one thing may become clearer: the extent to which Obama faces a new political reality as he begins to think about re-election in 2012.

Among the most telling indicators will be the outcomes of a handful of races for governor in important states Obama won in his 2008 campaign against Senator John McCain of Arizona. Those include Colorado,Florida,New Mexico and Ohio. In Florida,the contest between Alex Sink,the Democrat,and Rick Scott,the Republican,drew to a tie in polling in the waning days before the election. A victory for Scott would put a crucial swing state under Republican control.

The same can be said for Ohio. In the end,though,Obamas future may be determined by his ability to once again win a handful of Western states. Two races to watch: campaigns for governor in Colorado,which appears likely to be a solid Democratic victory,and New Mexico,which is leaning Republican.

THE MONEY

As the tide turned against the Democrats,Obama and his allies took aim at a flood of money outside groups were spending on behalf of Congressional Republicans. They argued that the money would corrupt the process and provide an unfair advantage to their rivals.

That thesis will be tested Tuesday in races like the one in Iowas First District,where outside conservative groups poured in close to 1 million to help defeat Representative Bruce Braley,a Democrat.MICHAEL D SHEAR