Back to base

Two years ago,Americans were voting Barack Obama into the White House,enthusing the rest of the world with their hope of renewal. At Obamas inauguration,the Democrats comfortably held both Houses of Congress. A year into Obamas presidency,there was still talk of a permanent Democratic majority. In November 2010,the Republicans,riding piggy-back on the Tea Party that dethroned establishment Republicans,have bettered their 1994 mid-term triumph,when they had stumped a still-new Clinton administration. Bill Clintons problems were nowhere on Obamas scale,and he retained the presidency convincingly in 1996. Obama,too,may survive 2012; but hell have to analyse how,four years after an expected storm had swept the Republicans out of the House of Representatives,an anticipated hurricane has cost the Democrats the House and reduced them to a tiny Senate majority. The immediate threat is to Obamas agenda; the longer-term danger is the often hysterical Tea Partys potential for irretrievably damaging his presidency.How did reality come to trump hope? To the extent the fault lies in the stars,Obama inherited a basket case of an economy and two wars from the self-same Republicans. The economic mess that catapulted the young senator to the White House has now worked against him. It wasnt going to be easy,and Obamas best efforts came too early in his first few months while the healthcare debate took up most of his time and political energy. In a crisis economy,with high unemployment,it gave his foes latitude to condemn his every move,including the stimulus and bail-outs. To the extent the fault lies in himself,his administration has fallen short,ironically,on rhetoric,failing to communicate what was being done and why,opening a wide gap between policy and politics,and conveying a sense of aloofness.

Whatever the particular message of the voter,Obamas priorities remain no different: as leader of whats still the most powerful nation,to manage the economy at home and abroad and to draw down two expensive and draining military engagements in Asia. Perhaps his challenge,one he can most ably meet,is to bring that same ringing clarity to executive decisions that he did to his remarkable election campaign.