Arms and the men

In support of the controversial peace deal in Pakistans Swat valley,it is typically argued that the facts on the ground need to be carefully seen for what they are. The arrangements made for implementation of Sharia law,it is claimed,are in essence no different from those that obtained under democratic governments in the 90s. This point of view,however,glosses over critical differences. Till recently,Swat remained a favourite tourist destination in Pakistan; its idyllic environs are perhaps over-idealised,but reports of damage being now inflicted on girls schools,for instance,and of dress and social codes being ruthlessly enforced,point to key departures from the past. And,as the shutdown of Islamabads embassies and schools this month showed,the Taliban in Pakistan hold very clear and present threats of violent disruption. This is why a rally this Sunday in Swat district is being seen as a worrying development.

The rally in Mingora was addressed by Sufi Muhammad,a pro-Taliban cleric who essentially won the peace deal with the government that was ratified by Pakistans President Asif Ali Zardari this month. As a sign of adherence to its basics,the cleric was expected to announce the laying down of arms by his followers. Muhammad,leader of the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi,threw down the gauntlet by contesting the acceptability of democracy,calling it un-Islamic. He labelled judges of the supreme court and high courts of Pakistan enemies,thereby laying down the parameters of his rhetoric directed against even those who participated in the movement for the restoration judges sacked by Pervez Musharraf.

Even discounting bluster,Sufi Muhammads rally reasserts the

uncertainties on which the Swat peace deal is based. It is something of a sport to measure the magnitude of the Taliban threat by measuring the distance of their latest stronghold from Islamabad. That makes for dramatic tension. But the threat is more realistically measured by evaluating the Pakistani states ability to hold its insurgent interlocutors to their word. If this risky way of containing the Taliban,through territorially limited peace deals,too cannot even gain Islamabad a disarmed local leadership,even those who defend the deal as a pragmatic step will lose the argument.