Waiting for Clinton

The US President would like to extract from Musharraf an assured time-table for moving Pakistan back to democracy. The general is not going to oblige Clinton on this. He plans to consolidate the military8217;s hold on Pakistan, and the restoration of democracy does not interest him at present. In India, Clinton wishes to urge Vajpayee to begin an India-Pakistan dialogue on Kashmir in all seriousness, without delay. Vajpayee has warned against his interference, not to speak of his participation, in this matter. India has also made it clear that no signature on the CTBT will be forthcoming during or before the visit. Of what use, then, will the visit be?

Musharraf has said that he is not a supporter of terrorism. Well, let us take him on face value and try to pin him down on that assertion. Let Clintoninvite Musharraf to commit Pakistan to joining a Pak-US Working Group on Counter-Terrorism much the same way India is now participating in an Indo-US Working Group, assign this group the initial tasks of tracing and arresting the IC-814 hijackers hiding in Pakistan or POK, as well as taking coordinated steps towards bringing to book Osama bin Laden, a wanted terrorist. With these two working groups in action, all three countries will be in a better position to understand each other on the issues of cross-border terrorism in this part of the world.

Another matter of deep concern is Musharraf8217;s refusal to assure the no-first-use of nuclear weapons, which India has already asserted unilaterally. The US Secretary of State has recently referred to this region of the world as a 8220;tinder box8221; and a 8220;fuse8221; waiting to be lit. This fear can be abated only if Musharraf also declares a no-first-use policy. We should encourage Clinton to use his superior negotiation skills to extract such a promise from the general during his visit to Islamabad.

An economically declining Pakistan under severe pressure is bound to look for a few close allies and for financial support. Pakistan might then toy with the idea of clandestinely transferring nuclear weapons technology to strengthen alliances and survive economically. A one-man rule in Pakistan makes it easier to effect such transfers without wider national scrutiny. Clinton must avert this possibility through diplomacy combined with just the optimum pressure on the general.

When Clinton arrives in India, I am sure we have a long wish-list kept readyfor him. Some of what we want, Clinton will not be above to provide at all. For example, a permanent seat for India in the UN Security Council or the supply of dual-use technologies is simply out of the question. Some other demands of ours he may have to concede, perhaps with minor modifications. Butwhat is almost certain to happen is that our ill-informed bureaucracy, together with the mindless politicians, will fail to present Clinton specific and substantial proposals of a long-term beneficial impact on this country. In our preoccupation with Kashmir, the CTBT and the like, the government has been paying scant attention to crucial sectors like power, health and industry. In none of these areas we have had any wider consultations among national experts, as part of the essential homework, preparatory to the Clinton visit.

An example of our lack of preparedness was seen during the visit of Bill Richardson, US Secretary of Energy, late last year. High-ash coal being the major primary energy resource of ours, Richardson8217;s visit could have been used to propose the setting up of first-of-a-kind, large-scale Indo-US joint projects towards utilising this resource through cost-effective clean-coal technologies. For example, India could even now propose the setting up of a 300-500 MW combined-cycle power plant, based on the gasification of this coal, with joint technological and financial participation from both thecountries.

Similarly, Clinton is proceeding from here to Bangladesh, which has abundant reserves of natural gas. Already, American companies are helping Bangladesh in tapping and marketing this gas. Exporting the gas to India would be ideal for both countries. If Clinton exerts his influence on Bangladesh, the present reluctance of the Bangladesh government to export gas to India can be removed. Any day, it will be a better proposition to get gas from just across the border than the present thinking of buying it from Iran and transporting it through long pipelines running along the stormy border with Pakistan.

India should not view the Clinton visit as centring on the CTBT and non-proliferation issues, now that the US, Russia and China are yet to ratify this treaty. Yet, we should reaffirm our commitment to non-proliferation, to a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, and to protect our nuclear weapons know-how and materials from getting into any other country. But, we still have to give something more tangible to Clinton that he can show as evidence of a successful visit, if we are to get from him something concrete in return. Therefore, we may have to assure him that the government is willing to sign the CTBT, once Parliament gives its majority approval. But, we must make it clear in our joint communique that the Indian ratification of the CTBT will take place only after all the five nuclear weapon powers also ratify it, and after obtaining further approval from Parliament. India must, at the same time, obtain an assurance from the US to make efforts at the forthcoming NPT Review Conference to speed up themovement towards universal nuclear disarmament, in a time-bound manner.

In today8217;s vitiated atmosphere, this is perhaps the totality of what Clinton can hope to do for South Asia and achieve out of his trip.

Atilde;sup2;f40Atilde;sup3;The writer is ex-chairman, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board of India

BLURB:

It will be better for India if Clinton visits Islamabad and talks to Musharraf about the need to curb cross-border terrorism instead of ignoring him