Vacuum after victory

The chief justice8217;s case is the first time in more than 30 years that the military8217;s power has been challenged in Pakistan. But the road from here is not clear at all

On July 19, the full bench of Pakistan8217;s Supreme Court restored the deposed chief justice in a 10:3 decision, causing tremendous jubilation in the streets over the victory of rule of law. The general perception is that the decision is the defeat of a military dictator. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called it the death of the 8216;doctrine of necessity8217; invoked in the past by the Supreme Court to legitimise military rule. From a legal perspective, the decision indeed heralds a new chapter in the otherwise sad history of the country8217;s superior court. For the common Pakistani, the restoration of the chief justice is not just a decision but a symbol of the strengthening of an institution that has the capacity to check authoritarian leadership.

However, once the euphoria dies down, it is important that people take a step back and evaluate the situation and what it really means for the political future of the country. Although a victory for the judiciary, the decision also provides breathing space for Musharraf. At this juncture the general was more concerned about stopping the movement of lawyers, despite the calculation by the intelligence agencies that the hot weather will tire people down. The lawyers not only braved the weather but the coercion of the state as well. As for the legal defeat, making questionable decisions and then withdrawing them in the face of pressure is Musharraf8217;s signature style. Decency demands that Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz resign from the government.

Musharraf8217;s primary focus is to get re-elected as president and retain his uniform. This he had hoped to do through a deal with Pakistan People8217;s Party8217;s Benazir Bhutto. Till a few days ago it seemed that Benazir was ready for an agreement. However, her recent statements expressing her unwillingness to strike an agreement with the general demonstrate her capacity to raise her price and a certain consciousness that a deal will not go down well with her party, particularly after this decision. The political parties were getting a lot of flak for not spearheading a popular movement.

Musharraf and his key benefactor, the US, wanted him to negotiate power with the only national and seemingly secular party, the PPP. But throughout the lawyer8217;s movement, Benazir Bhutto was less inclined to put pressure on Musharraf 8212; her statements in the past couple of months were conciliatory towards the general. The CJ8217;s decision, however, seems to have upset the applecart once again. And now, the PPP leadership8217;s increased confidence means that Musharraf might have to sacrifice his uniform, especially since his contesting elections in uniform could be challenged in the Supreme Court, and he may not get a favourable judgment. The impression is that he had given a commitment to American diplomats regarding doffing his uniform.

The decision on the CJ8217;s case has come in an environment where the country is under tremendous pressure due to the raging battle between the military and militants. The battle is between the military and militants 8212; not between the military and mullahs. The latter are still part of the regime. The battle with the militants, nevertheless, creates some space for accommodation between the PPP and the GHQ which was under threat as long as lawyers were out in the streets protesting.

Although some leaders of the Supreme Court8217;s bar council talked about carrying the movement forward, the fact is that public protest might now get increasingly isolated unless the political leadership is willing to increase pressure on Musharraf and his military. The critical mass that gathered around the CJ might not materialise again, especially when the popular political parties are willing to cut a deal with the military.

The CJ8217;s case was the first time in more than 30 years that the military8217;s power has been challenged. But the regime is obdurately hanging on to its prime minister and the law minister 8212; two people who were responsible for the crisis.

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Siddiqa is the Islamabad-based author of 8216;Military Inc, Inside Pakistan8217;s Military Economy8217;