US may change law for last-mile sprint up the Hill

The US hardball diplomacy moves from Vienna to Washington. Faced with a September 26 deadline for the US Congress to ratify the 123 agreement...

The US hardball diplomacy moves from Vienna to Washington. Faced with a September 26 deadline for the US Congress to ratify the 123 agreement and thus, seal the deal, the Bush Administration is most likely left with little choice but to introduce an India-specific Bill to amend the US Atomic Energy Act.

Reason: The Hyde Act and the US Atomic Energy Act require the agreement to sit on Capitol Hill for 30 days and then give the Congress 60 days to take an 8220;up and down8221; vote a yes-or-no vote without any amendments.

The US Congress starts its 17-day session on Monday and although sessions can be extended if House leaders want it, indications are it8217;s unlikely that the Congress will hold a lameduck session in November given the Presidential elections.

So, a standalone Bill 8212; specifically for the 123 agreement 8212; is the most plausible route to fast-forward the entire process. There8217;s one catch, though. For, when a Bill is moved, there may be a call for amendments to the 123 which could complicate matters given the non-proliferation lobby on the Hill, including House International Relations Committee Chairman Howard Berman, who released the communication between the State Department and the Congress a day before the NSG meet.

The Bush Administration is banking on the strong bipartisan support the nuclear initiative enjoys in the US Congress. Another argument it could use is that, technically, India can start cooperation with other NSG countries since it now has the waiver. Although sources said India would not, in the larger political interest, like the US to be kept out of high-tech trade with India 8212; to ensure permanency of the waiver 8212; agreements with Russia and France are ready and are likely to be signed within the next couple of months. This is where pressure will increase on the US Congress to act soon.

For the Bush Administration, the immediate step, however, is to submit seven Presidential determinations that certify completion of all pre-requisites stipulated by the Hyde Act. These include the credible separation plan, the NSG waiver, completion of all legal steps towards a safeguards agreement with IAEA, progress on discussions with IAEA on an Additional Protocol.

It8217;s learnt that these determinations are ready and will be submitted to the US Congress early next week along with the process of moving the Bill. Assuming these steps are completed, the two foreign relations committees in both chambers will carry out hearings. One is headed by Berman, the other by Joe Biden, a strong advocate of the deal. Once the committees clear them, they will be brought before the full Congress for a vote.

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According to understanding between India and the US, New Delhi will sign the safeguards agreement only after the 123 agreement is over.