The Road Ahead

After hours of hectic debate that November night, Koirala and Prachanda signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPA on behalf of the government and the rebels, putting years of insurgency and conflict behind them and declaring that peace, democracy and prosperity would be their common goal.

The international community, worried all these years that the impact of 8216;terrorism8217; would spill beyond Nepal, was euphoric as well. Others joined in as well. King Gyanendra, whose end symbolised the beginning, responded postively to the CPA. While he has been largely silent and almost invisible nbsp;ever since he handed over power to Koirala on April 24, he acknowledged the contribution of all those who have brought the bloodshed, violence and terrorism to an end through the peace agreement. In a statement, he expressed hope that sustainable peace, effective multi-party democracy and prosperity would be realised through 8216;collective efforts8217;.

Too many promises to keep?

IT8217;S not all undiluted hope though. There is palpable fear that the peace process ahead is not just full of challenges, it8217;s also very fragile. The promises and provisions contained in the CPA are not only ambitious, but unrealistic as well. Many believe that nbsp;most of the targets mentioned in the agreement can be met only if the international community cooperates on Nepal8217;s terms and not its own. And the list of demand is spiralling.

There are other issues of concern such as the fate of the monarchy, radical socio-economic transformation of the state, restructuring of the unitary state to decide mode devolution and demobilisation and decommissioning of the Maoist cadre and reintegration of the politically trained PLA with the national army.

In addition to all this, the Maoists have to be kept in line so that the constituent assembly election takes places as announced by June 2007 in an atmosphere free of intimidation. 8220;I think an election is possible, but there have to be laws to enable me to proceed with the formalities,8221; chief election commissioner Bhojraj Pokhrel told The Sunday Express.

The government has earmarked Rs 1.27 billion for the purpose and the CEC plans to train about 84,000 personnel to conduct polls in around 14,000 booths. But all this will be possible only if the peace process goes off smoothly and if all works out well between the nbsp;Maoists, government and political parties.

In a meeting with donors recently, finance minister Ram Sharan Mahat pleaded for a Rs 5-billion grant to settle Maoist guerrillas or the People8217;s Liberation Army PLA in around 28 camps as agreed in the CPA.

Maoists claim their number is about 35,000, but it8217;s been left to the United Nations8217; 200-strong team led by the Secretary-General8217;s special representative Ian Martin, to verify the claim and have a final say on the matter.

The signing of the CPA, which took place six days behind schedule, may have chain reactions or delay other process by a couple of weeks, but it clearly paves the way for the inclusion of the Maoists in the interim government within the norms and parameter of the parliamentary system.

8220;Only democracy can welcome the non-democrats in its fold,8221; said Koirala. The Prime Minister appears to be banking on Bishwanath Upadhyay, a retired chief justice of the Supreme Court, to give a final touch to the 8216;draft interim constitution8217;, which would be the guideline for the interim government.

An interim parliament with 330 members will be formed soon after the interim constitution and the government come into existence as a stop gap arrangement till the constituent assembly is elected.

Between the Monarchy and the Maoists

THE architect of Nepal is a term usually popularly applied to King Prithvinarayan Shah during whose rule in the eighteenth century Nepal moved into the modern phase of its history. But monarchy is no longer a popular word in the country.

8220;The future of nbsp;the monarchy will be settled by the first day8217;s session of the constituent assembly,8221; the CPA has declared. But just how it will be settled is not quite clear. Major political parties, mainly the Congress and the Communist Party, are divided on the issue. While the Congress tilts towards a ceremonial monarchy, the Communist Party is all for a republic.

Maoist chief Prachanda, perhaps in pursuit of pragmatic politics, chose not to utter the word republic when he addressed those present at the siging in ceremony at the Birendra International Convention Hall, but a couple of opinion polls conducted recently indicate that though the king is unpopular, he8217;s not altogether been discarded. And Koirala believes that if the King is denied a ceremonial role, it will have unhappy consequences for the country later.

The challenges from the monarchy are not the only ones that the new regime will encounter in future. More will come from the Maoists front.

While Prachanda has been able to tell India, an influential neighbour, that his shift to the parliamentary system is genuine, the Maoists still figure in the US terrorist list. If the Maoists don8217;t change, it could complicate Nepal8217;s relationship with the superpower. Second, Prachanda will have to manage anger and frustration of his gun-wielding cadre, mostly from ethnic groups, who are feeling misled, if not betrayed.

A nation8217;s health

KOIRALA8217;S challenges are no less serious. Communist party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist CPN-UML is upset over what it sees as Koirala8217;s appeasement of the Maoists at the UML8217;s cost. The Prime Minister has agreed to give equal number of seats in the council of ministers and the interim parliament to the Maoists as the UML. 8220;We are not be part of the government at the cost of our dignity,8217;8217; says CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal.

While going against Koirala when euphoria over CPA still dictates politics will not work in the interests of the UML, it may divide pro-democracy forces leading to political instability.

Another little-talked about destabilising factor is Koirala8217;s health. Every one, from Prachanda to King Gyanendra, has pinned their hopes on him as a leader who can inspire the politics of reconciliation and steer the country out of the current chaos. If he was to step out of action for health problems, it could be disastrous. 8220;That8217;s why I want to have every thing settled before I am out of the scene,8221; is something Koirala has been telling Prachanda, warning him that once he was out, getting him into the system would be very difficult.

Prachanda seems to have heeded the warning, declaring 8220;Koirala will remain the leader of the interim government8221;. Prachanda, more than anyone else, knows that his party can be easily established in the system if someone like Koirala continues to patronise it.

Justice for all

EQUALLY challenging, if not more, is to find an appropriate way and mechanism to smoke out those who have 8216;perpetrated8217; crimes from both sides in the years of conflict and punish them appropriately so that impunity will be an alien subject in future Nepal. A tall promise and hard to deliver.

But many things could be brought into the realm of reality if the Maoists could prove that their joining the political mainstream is not merely a tactical move. And they must. At the moment, even the US has hailed the CPA. Welcoming the CPA, the US embassy said, 8220;this means violence, intimidation, and criminal acts 8212; such as forced recruitment of cadre and extortion 8212; must end. nbsp;The Nepali people, who have lived in fear for 11 years, deserve a chance to live without fear and choose their form of government in fair elections8221;.

Obviously, the CPA is only the basis of a promised beginning or a process that takes Nepal to the threshold of peace. But the road ahead needs to be explored with caution, confidence and sincere implementation of the previous understanding.

A LOT TO ACHIEVE

Ranked 138

out of 177 countries

62.1 years

Life Expectancy

48.6

Adult Literacy

Ranked 68

among 102 developing countries

48

Underweight children

As per Human Development Index charted by the United Nations Development Programme, 2004