The Global warning in Bush146;s climate plan

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will be host this week to the Group of 8 meeting with the leaders of the world8217;s richest nations, at which she plans to push for much the same goal as Bush, although her plan would require a sharp reduction in emissions. Bush8217;s vaguely worded proposal8212;which has so far steered clear of such caps 8212;has muddied what had been shaping up as a black-and-white showdown between Europe and the US.

Merkel8217;s environmental minister, Sigmar Gabriel, warned that Bush8217;s plan might prove to be a 8220;Trojan horse,8221; impeding her efforts to reach an agreement on an ambitious plan to decrease emissions, while defusing criticism that the US is a hurdle to the broader climate effort.

The news media was notably sceptical. 8220;Bush torpedoes Merkel8217;s climate plans,8221; said a representative headline in the German financial paper Handelsblatt. But for Merkel8217;s chief climate advisor, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Bush8217;s plan was a welcome sign that the United States had re-engaged in the debate, even if he disagreed with its approach.

8220;It8217;s clearly an indication that the Bush administration wants to contribute to solving the problem,8221; Schellnhuber said.

Merkel, supported by Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain and other European leaders, wants to set a global target to cut emissions 50 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050. In a draft communiqueacute; for the Group of 8 meeting, German negotiators also propose increasing energy efficiency 20 per cent by 2020.

The Bush administration favours a piecemeal approach, in which countries would set their own targets for the next 10 to 20 years to reduce emissions based on their economic circumstances. A long-term 8220;aspirational8221; global target, decades further out, would be sought based on what countries agreed would be the best way to limit climate risks.

Negotiators for the White House wrote last week that the German draft proposal 8220;crosses multiple 8216;red lines8217; of what we simply cannot agree to,8221; adding, 8220;We have tried to 8216;tread lightly,8217; but there is only so far we can go, given our fundamental opposition to the German position.8221; That rebuff angered German diplomats, stiffening their resolve to push for reductions regardless of whether they provoked a clash with the US or spoiled the mood at the Baltic Sea resort where the conference is to be held.

Now, he said, there might be room for compromise, though he acknowledged the gulf was still wide. Merkel, who welcomed Bush8217;s speech as an 8220;important statement,8221; nevertheless gave no indication that she was willing to yield on her goal of a 50 per cent cut in emissions. A spokesman for Merkel, Ulrich Wilhelm, said, 8220;I think we can say at this stage that we face very intense negotiations.8221; Other German officials, including the government8217;s chief negotiator, Bernd Pfaffenbach, said the talks could collapse.

That would be a rare setback for Merkel, who has made climate change the centrepiece of Germany8217;s dual presidency of the Group of 8 and the European Union. In March, she won a landmark agreement that set a binding target for use of renewable energy in Europe.

A deadlock would suit critics of the Bush administration, who say their greatest fear is that Europe will water down its targets or accept bland diplomatic language as a substitute.

8220;The G-8 text is the litmus test,8221; said Stephan Singer, head of climate policy at WWF, formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund, in Brussels.

Critics also contend that Bush8217;s proposal to seek a global deal by the end of 2008 would undermine the role of the United Nations as the main forum for climate negotiations, including the talks that led to the Kyoto Protocol, which required participating industrialised nations to reduce emissions. Convening the largest emitters in the US would create a parallel round of talks, they said. 8220;Our first point is that this must happen within the context of the UN,8221; said Michael Muuml;ller, Germany8217;s deputy environmental minister. 8220;Our second point is that to wait until 2008 is too long.8221;

Senior White House officials denied any intent to undermine UN-sponsored talks. 8220;We fully expect that these discussions will feed into the UN process,8221; said James L. Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. 8220;People should give us the benefit of doubt,8221; he said. 8220;It8217;s the outcome they should pay the most attention to.8221;