The geopolitical ripples

The dramatic seven missile tests by North Korea doesn8217;t just test the patience of the international community, which has been warning Pyongyang against it, they could mark a decisive break in the geopolitics of East Asia.

The dramatic seven missile tests by North Korea doesn8217;t just test the patience of the international community, which has been warning Pyongyang against it, they could mark a decisive break in the geopolitics of East Asia.

United States
For the Bush Administration, the failure of the Tapeodong 2 intercontinental missile, which had the capability to reach Alaska and other Western territories of the US, is a relief. For Washington, this is a confirmation of the threat the irresponsible regime in North Korea poses for Asian security. Washington is bound to win strong support for its missile defence plans in Asia.

Japan
The biggest consequence of the tests is likely to be on Japanese domestic politics and its defence policy. Tokyo has already announced some sanctions against North Korea and more could follow. The tests might boost the chances of Shinzo Abe, the current chief cabinet secretary, to succeed Junichiro Koizumi as Prime Minister in September. For long, Abe has been pointing to the security threat from North Korea. Japan is likely to further strengthen its military alliance with the US and accelerate its missile defence programme.

China
As the best friend of North Korea, Beijing is likely to emerge as the biggest loser from the tests. It will come under greater pressure from the US to constrain Pyongyang. It might also be compelled to deal with a more assertive Japan. A Vice-Minister from Beijing is heading for North Korea next week to defuse the crisis.

South Korea
In Seoul, the tension between the policy of engaging North Korea and cooperating with US and Japan against Pyongyang will soon come to a head. The South will now find itself increasingly difficult to downplay the threat from the North.

Pakistan
Missile scientists in Pakistan, who have had a long record of cooperation with their counterparts in North Korea would be impressed. Although the Tapeo Dong 2 missile firing has failed, it should open interesting options for Pakistan on acquiring long-range missile technology from North Korea.

India
Missile cooperation between Pakistan and North Korea has profoundly undermined India8217;s security, but New Delhi appears to be holding its peace. At least for the moment.