The chill in summer

Amid the declining violence, subdued separatist politics and the rising clamour of the mainstream parties...

Amid the declining violence, subdued separatist politics and the rising clamour of the mainstream parties, if there is still anything that deserves to be noticed in Kashmir, it is Pakistans growing psychological distance from the routine political discourse. The common perception, with a telling effect on secessionist politics, is that that Islamabad has lost its traditional drive to pursue the Kashmir issue and is now keen to move beyond it in its relations with New Delhi. This has not only deprived secessionist platforms of their traditional anchor of support, but also disappointed the larger separatist constituency.

So we now dont have the moderate Hurriyat speaking in favour of Musharrafs four-point proposals. Or the hawk Geelani pressing for the accession of Kashmir to Pakistan in his furious rhetoric. Or for that matter Pakistan becoming the staple of slogans in the steadily shrinking secessionist protests. And then you have former militants organising themselves into groups to seek rights and rehabilitation from New Delhi.

All these indicate that Kashmir has come a long way. But are we in for a 1988 redux, the last peaceful year before a whirlwind of separatist violence overtook the state?

Its tempting to say yes seeing the weakening of factors underpinning the secessionist platform: violence is on the ebb, secessionists are losing their hold, Pakistan is or seems to be giving up active patronage and mainstream parties are using the opportunity to hurtle to the centrestage.

Things are in flux. But there is a note of caution too. Deprived of unqualified Pakistan backing, separatists are trying to acquire more nationalistic bearings. There are incipient noises of indigenising the Azadi campaign. The Hurriyat, which has never modelled itself as a political party, is now out to build a grassroots base and become a mass-based party. There is a rush to open offices across the Valley and recruit footsoldiers. On the other hand militant groups, both Kashmir centric like the Hizbul Mujahideen and Pakistan based Lashkar-i-Toiba in a show of solidarity are holding meetings in PoK and indicating a resolve to strike on their own. And with reports of fresh spurt in infiltration into Kashmir, they may have been already been acting on their threat.

What do we infer from such a state of affairs? Islamabads pre-occupation with its own worries may have brought down violence and emasculated separatists but in the end it seems to have unleashed new dynamics into Valley politics. And perhaps what matters most is how the new signals and images from Pakistan play to the people of Kashmir and how they respond. For now, the pre-dominant sentiment among the separatist block is that Islamabad may have taken them for a ride. While there was a sneaking suspicion of this treatment after Musharraf hosted the Kashmiri mainstream leaders in 2006, PDP leader Mehbooba Muftis joint press conference with Asif Zardari has cemented this impression.

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