Sugar Daddy, Bitter Pill

It8217;s extraordinary. Just how did he achieve this? Here8217;s the story of the week that almost changed the Maratha Strongman 8230; to the Maratha Strawman.

It goes back to the day when deputy prime minister and BJP leader L.K. Advani flew to Mumbai to meet Thackeray and sound out the Shiv Sena supremo on an early general election. Details of the confab were duly leaked to the media and the balloon floated that Pawar and the NCP would join the BJP-Sena partnership, making it a sort of anti-Congress axis.

Since the NCP and Congress run the coalition that now rules Maharashtra, to Sonia Gandhi8217;s party 8212; not to speak of half the NCP 8212; this seemed a decidedly off-colour joke. Pawar saw red, went into a blue funk, muttered something about yellow journalism. In good politico style, he denied everything.

Until Thackeray broke the code of silence. The Sena chief publicly admitted he had discussed Pawar8217;s entry into the NDA with Advani. Pawar was now in a soup, meekly admitting that 8216;8216;all options were open for the NCP8217;8217;, no longer ruling out nuptials with the NDA.

Finally, Thackeray changed his mind. On January 7, he told journalists there was no place for the NCP in the joint front in Maharashtra. Pawar8217;s people were back to cooking up explanations.

Trusted aide and NCP spokesman Praful Patel was suitably perturbed. 8216;8216;Sharad Pawar is a misunderstood politician,8217;8217; Patel explained, 8216;8216;it is unfortunate he is being dragged into the political controversy.8217;8217; Patel admitted the NDA was looking for allies but insisted, 8216;8216;We will not succumb to their pressure.8217;8217;.

The post facto reasoning may convince some but it doesn8217;t convince Sanjay Nirupam. Take a quick look, says this Shiv Sena MP, at the statements issued by Pawar over the past week: he sounds confused. Nirupam can get harsher, 8216;8216;In my opinion, he is one of the most dishonest politicians. More than a decade ago, he had engineered a split in the Shiv Sena and now, he is knocking on our doors to share power.8217;8217;

Nirupam8217;s political mentor, Thackeray, used to describe Pawar as 8216;8216;enemy number one8217;8217;. For three years, culminating in the assembly election of 1994, BJP state chief Gopinath Munde ran a campaign accusing him of 8216;8216;criminalising politics8217;8217;. Congress high command Sonia Gandhi has not yet pardoned him for targeting her four years ago, walking out of the Congress on the 8216;8216;foreign origin8217;8217; issue.

Yet Pawar remains the most sought after politician in Maharashtra today. Yet, as the electoral battle begins, he becomes the focus of political deal-making. He hasn8217;t won an election in Maharashtra in years 8212; but his support is usually crucial if you want to form a government.

In any Lok Sabha election, Maharashtra is crucial to both the BJP and the Congress, both national parties seeing it as a stronghold and its 48 seats as up for grabs. This year, with north India a write-off, the Congress is targeting 40 seats in Maharashtra. That figure is about the ambition of the NDA as well.

In theory, a BJP-NCP-Sena troika would have cantered home, reducing the Congress to a non-starter. Pawar could conceivably have become a minister in the Union cabinet 8212; provided the NDA was re-elected 8212; and everybody would have been happy.

Everybody other than the crusty Mr Thackeray. In his assessment, the BJP would now have two regional allies to choose from 8212; the NCP and the Sena. It could play off one against the other and, in effect, rule as a sort of first among equals.

To the BJP, Pawar seemed a good catch for a whole host of reasons.

One, his party dominates western Maharashtra. With the exception of the Vidharba region 66 of the assembly8217;s 288 seats, it is a force to reckon with all over the state. In anything between 50 and 60 per cent of Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies, Pawar can make or mar your election. He is the ultimate spoiler.

Two, Pawar8217;s socio-economic base is intact. The cooperative sector still calls the shots in Maharashtra8217;s agriculture-based rural economy and Pawar is the king of cooperatives.

Be it the Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank deposits: Rs 11,200 crore or the Sakhar Sangh, a federation of powerful sugar barons, Pawar8217;s is the invisible hand. The apex cooperative bank8217;s board of directors is handpicked by Pawar.

Of the 160 sugar mills that are members of the Sangh, 95 owe allegiance to Pawar. Barring exceptions like Sena MP Balasaheb Vikhe-Patil, no other politician has measurable influence in the sector. Pawar is Maharashtra8217;s Sugar Daddy.

Three, Pawar is still the tallest Maratha leader, chieftain of an aggressive community that is estimated to comprise 15 per cent of the electorate and pull a punch in some 180 assembly constituencies. No wonder they say you can8217;t rule Maharashtra without the Marathas.

Finally, to the left and socialists, Pawar remains the only politician who can stop the BJP-Sena.

IF the man seems a paradox, it8217;s not without reason. At 63, Pawar is still young by the standards of Indian politics. Three decades ago, he was the wunderkind: state Youth Congress president at 24, MLA from Baramati see accompanying story at 27, chief minister at 38.

Before taking over as defence minister 8212; he was just over 50 8212; in June 1991, Pawar had already done three stints as chief minister. He returned to the state in 1993, after the post-Babri Majid violence.

Pawar is the quintessential Mumbai man, even getting his trademark white shirts tailored by a Bandra tailor. His patronage network extends from agriculture to sports culture 8212; chief of the Mumbai Cricket Association, state wrestling association, you name it.

His talent for manipulation was first seen in 1978, when he overthrew the Congress government of the late Vasantdada Patil. Pawar8217;s breakaway Congress Socialist joined hands with the Janata Party to become chief minister but was dismissed by Indira Gandhi in 1980.

In four decades, Pawar has left and rejoined the Congress thrice. On one occasion he told his supporters to blacken his face if he so much as mentioned going back. Soon, he was shaking hands with Rajiv Gandhi, face as white as ever.

His real strength stems from the cooperative and sugar lobbies, which remained his preserve even when the BJP-Sena ruled between 1994-99. This is why the BJP wants him. This is why the Congress needs him. Now if only Sharadrao would make up his mind 8230;